BTC Dropped Below 100K, Should You Panic?

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I repeat, the market is not over - yet.

Read that again.
Say it out loud.
Let it sink in.

We are now in the exact same conditions as the two previous times we tagged, and slightly dipped below, the 1W 50SMA.

The weekly RSI has also reached the same zone, if not slightly lower.
And the Fear & Greed Index?
Sitting at Extreme Fear.

If you know the game, this is your cue.
If you don’t, you’ll miss it, again.

Because these are the perfect conditions to be the most bullish and to allocate the most confidently.

It doesn’t get better than this.

The Setup Never Lies

Every major rally starts the same way,
when everyone’s too scared to see it.

And now, 2025.

Same structure.
Same fear.
Same disbelief.

Every time BTC dips below the 1W 50SMA,
retail screams “bear market,”
funding dries up,
and the weak hands start dumping bags at the bottom.

Then, quietly, the reversal begins.

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This Is Where Emotion Kills You

I don’t care how you feel right now.
Sad, frustrated, tired, doesn’t matter.

There’s no place for emotion in this stage of the cycle.

Objectively, this is the most bullish time you’ll ever see.

If you can’t see that,
you don’t understand the game at all.

The safest time to buy is after a prolonged drawdown,
when we’re tagging key levels with cooling higher timeframe indicators,
and the market is full of people saying “it’s over.”

That’s the formula.
That’s how markets have worked for centuries.

Fear is your signal.
Not FOMO.
Not hype.
Not headlines.

Fear.

The Paradox of Pain

Yes, the price action is savage.
Yes, it feels endless.
Yes, it feels like it’ll never get better.

But here’s the paradox:
The worse the conditions feel,
the safer it is to take positions.

The better it feels,
the more danger you’re in.

That’s why 99% of traders buy tops and sell bottoms.

Every single cycle, it’s the same story.
They sell fear and buy greed.

They capitulate when RSI is oversold.
They pile in when influencers say “we’re going to the moon.”

And then they wonder why they always end up late.

Learn From History, Or Repeat It

This exact same setup played out in:

• September 2024, market bottomed, reversed, rallied.

• April 2025, same fear, same sentiment reset, same rebound.

Both times, the pattern was identical:
Tag the 1W 50SMA.
Oversold RSI.
Extreme fear.
Then boom.
Violent upside reversal.

This moment right now?
Same ingredients.

If history rhymes, and it always does
we’re about to see the same move again.

Don’t Sell the Bottom, Sell the Bounce

Even if you believe it’s “all over,”
it will not go to zero in one massive red candle.

Markets don’t move like that.

There will be a decent bounce.
And if you truly want out,
sell on the bounce,
not on the panic wick low.

Because the ones who sell here
are the ones who always end up chasing higher again
a few weeks later.

Every time.

What the Bulls Need to See

The best-case scenario for bulls:
a 1W close above the 50SMA.
Then, a green monthly close for November.

That’s the confirmation of strength.
That’s the signal for momentum to return.

But understand this:
The market will always push as close to invalidation as possible
make you question everything,
convince you it’s over,
and then rip higher at the very moment you give up.

That’s the design.
That’s how liquidity is created.
And that’s how the few take from the many.

The previous two times this happened,
it barely gave anyone a chance to get back in.

Don’t count on a second chance this time.

However, invalidation comes in if BTC close 2 weekly candles below 50W SMA, then its over for bull market.

My Take

This is where legends are made
not during rallies,
but during despair.

When you allocate rationally during fear,
you position yourself to multiply when the market recovers.

This is how generational wealth is built
in silence, not in celebration.

I’ve seen this movie before.
And in my book
it ends the same way again.

Prepare before the reversal begins.

This is your complete system for navigating volatility,
allocating during fear,
and exiting before euphoria.

When the market fakes the end,
that’s when the real move begins.
And when it happens this time
there won’t be time to think,
only to act.

Victor