Altseason Isn't What You Think—The REAL Signal is Hiding in Plain Sight

Everyone’s waiting for the altseason. The one where random altcoins 10x overnight, and Twitter loses its mind.

But what if I told you... we’ve already had two altseasons this year?

Not the all-out mania everyone is dreaming about—but miniature altseasons.

And if you knew where to look, you could’ve timed them perfectly.

The Altseason Myth: It’s NOT Just About BTC Dominance

Most people think altcoins only pump when Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) drops. But that’s a half-truth.

Yes, when BTC.D falls, it usually means money is flowing out of Bitcoin and into alts. But that’s not the only way alts can rally.

➡️ What if BTC dominance stays high, but Bitcoin itself is mooning?

➡️ What if alts still surge, even while BTC.D remains stable?

That’s exactly what happened in Q1 2024 and Q4 2024.

Let’s go back and break these moves down.

The Q1 2024 Mini-Altseason

Back in January-March 2024, Bitcoin went parabolic.

• BTC blasted from $42k to over $70k, a massive 66% move.

• Meanwhile, BTC dominance stayed relatively stable (hovering around 52-54%).

• But guess what? Altcoins still popped off.

L1s like Solana, meme coins, and AI tokens saw 100%-200%+ moves in just a few weeks.

💡 Why? Because as long as Bitcoin is rising in USD value, altcoins can still rally.

The trick is understanding the relationship between BTC and liquidity.

The Q4 2024 Mini-Altseason

Now let’s fast-forward to October-November 2024.

• Bitcoin was consolidating, and BTC dominance remained steady.

• Yet altcoins pumped across the board—especially gaming, DeFi, and lower-cap coins.

• This lasted for about six weeks before cooling off.

Again, Bitcoin wasn’t losing dominance. But liquidity was still flowing into alts.

So, if BTC.D alone doesn’t predict these runs…

What does?

The REAL Signal: USDT Dominance (USDT.D)

If you want to catch altseason before it happens, stop just watching BTC dominance.

Instead, focus on USDT dominance (USDT.D).

USDT.D tells us how much of the market is sitting in stablecoins vs. flowing into crypto assets.

✅ When USDT.D is trending down, money is moving into BTC and alts.
❌ When USDT.D trends up, money is rotating out of crypto into stablecoins.

And here’s the kicker…

📉 Every major altseason (mini or full) starts when USDT.D breaks down.

Let’s look at the Q1 and Q4 altseasons again:

• In both cases, USDT.D was in a clear downtrend.

• Money was leaving stables and entering risk assets.

• This ignited both mini altseasons, even though BTC dominance stayed high.

🚀 What Comes Next?

So, does this mean the real altseason is finally here?

Here’s what we need to see:

1️⃣ BTC Dominance Dropping – Meaning Bitcoin slows down, and capital rotates into alts.
2️⃣ USDT Dominance Breaking Down Further – Meaning more liquidity flows into crypto.

Right now, we’re halfway there.

✅ USDT.D is still trending lower, meaning money is trickling into the market.
❌ BTC.D hasn’t cracked yet, so we haven’t seen full-on altseason mode.

📊 Here’s what I’m watching:

• If USDT.D breaks a major support, we could see another mini altseason wave.

• If BTC.D starts trending down, that’s when we get the true euphoric altseason.

🔥 The Play: How to Position Yourself

So how do you actually trade this setup?

• If USDT.D keeps dropping, start scaling into high-conviction alts.

• Watch for BTC dominance to roll over—this would confirm the next rotation.

• Don’t wait for Twitter hype. The best time to position is BEFORE the crowd sees it.

Altseason isn’t just coming—it’s already been happening in waves. The difference between winning and missing out?

Knowing what to watch for.

If BTC.D and USDT.D align, that’s when we’ll see the REAL altseason explosion.

Until then, be ready.

See you inside 9-5 Traders once you’re ready.

🚀 Talk soon,
Victor