I want to start with the record. Not for ego. For trust.

This community is built on one thing. Calling the market as I see it, in real time, without changing the story when it gets uncomfortable. What happened over the last few months is the clearest example of why that matters.

Let me walk through it chronologically.

The record in full.

March 18. I posted in this Discord that I was in ETH and HYPE with all stops moved to profit zone. Zero risk trades. And I stated clearly that all trades were countertrend rallies. The macro thesis was explicit. This is a lower high. We will visit lower prices over 2026 into late Q2. That was posted when BTC was bouncing and CT was starting to get excited about new highs.

March 22. One clear instruction. Stay 100% USDC. We have stayed bearish since the failed breakout. Don't overstay positions. If you have a countertrend trade, have a clear invalidation. Otherwise cash.

April 22. BTC was ranging in the 74k to 82k zone. CT was noisy with bullish narratives. My post was direct. This indecision is engineered to make you overtrade and overthink. Time and price levels are the only indicators. BTC needs to break 80 to 84k. ETH needs to break 2.6k. If those levels don't break, be prepared for lower prices this year.

On another post, I laid out the two scenarios for 100% USDC holders.

Scenario 1. Bottom is in. If you believe CT and think the bottom is in, enter only on a weekly close above 76k. At least that's a safer bet than chasing inside the range.

Scenario 2. Bear market relief. Short when we break below 60k and retest from below. My calls will be heavy during this phase. Still leaning toward scenario 2.

Now look at where price is today.

BTC has dumped sharply. ETH has followed. The influencers who called 120k after the 82k bounce have gone quiet or pivoted their narrative. The people who followed them are now holding losses with no framework.

We are in 100% USDC. Untouched. Full capital. Ready.

Why I stayed bearish when everyone else didn't.

Some members questioned the thesis. Some left. That's the honest reality of running a community where you hold an unpopular view during a period when the crowd is pointing the other direction.

The conviction came from two places.

The first is the 4-year cycle analysis. 2018 and 2022 both delivered bear markets during mid-term years. Both followed the same pattern of a parabolic high, a failed breakout, a bear market relief rally that sucked retail back in, and then a final leg lower that broke everyone who held through it. The conditions for this cycle match that pattern. Not perfectly, nothing in markets is perfect. But closely enough to demand respect.

The second is the technical structure. When BTC broke the 200-day SMA to the downside earlier this year, that was the institutional signal. Systematic funds that use trend following models get triggered at that level. When it breaks, the selling becomes self-reinforcing. I called that level out in January. It was the first confirmation that the macro picture had shifted.

The combination of cycle analysis and the 200 SMA break put me in cash and kept me there. Every bounce since has been treated as a countertrend move, not a reversal. And every one of those bounces has eventually been sold.

Where we are right now in the cycle.

BTC has now broken through multiple support levels that were discussed in detail in this community over the past months. The channel lower boundaries. The key horizontal levels. The 75k line in the sand. All of them have given way.

This is not surprising. It is the scenario that was described as the lean since March.

What matters now is not what has already happened. What matters is what comes next and how we position for it.

Here is the macro roadmap as it stands.

The current dump is not the end of the move. It is likely the continuation of the bear market relief phase completing and the next leg of the macro downtrend beginning. The relief rally from the lows to the 82k to 85k area has been distributed into. The failed breakout above 84k confirmed the supply. And now the selling pressure that was waiting above has rotated into selling pressure below.

The target zone I have been building toward is in the 60k to below range. Specifically, the scenario I have been leaning toward since April is a break below 60k followed by a retest of 60k from below. That retest is where the heavy calls begin.

Below 60k, the range I'm watching extends toward the 30k to 40k zone over the coming months. This is consistent with the 2018 and 2022 cycle drawdown percentages applied to the most recent ATH. I'm not going to give a specific number today because the entry will be determined by price structure and confirmation signals at the time, not a static prediction made months in advance.

What I can tell you is the framework for how we enter.

The entry criteria for the macro low.

There are three conditions I want to see before calling the macro low and entering with full conviction.

The first is price reaching the target zone. We are not there yet. The 60k to below level needs to be traded into, not just approached. I want to see the level on the screen before thinking about entry.

The second is the retest behaviour. When price breaks below 60k and then retests 60k from below, the nature of that retest tells you whether sellers are exhausted or still in control. A retest that fails quickly with strong rejection candles is bearish. A retest that finds support, consolidates, and starts to build a base structure is the signal I'm looking for.

The third is BTC dominance and USDT dominance. When USDT dominance starts falling from elevated levels at the same time BTC dominance peaks and starts declining, that is the liquidity rotation signal. Capital moving out of stablecoins into BTC and then from BTC into ETH and alts. That sequence has preceded every meaningful bull phase in crypto history. I will be watching for it and posting about it the moment I see it developing.

Until all three conditions align, we stay in cash.

The sizing plan when the entry arrives.

When the macro low setup presents itself, this will not be a partial position cautious entry. The entire point of staying in 100% USDC through this bear phase is to preserve full capital for full deployment at the right moment.

The entry will be sized aggressively because the risk is defined. We will know our stop level because the structure will define it. We will know our targets because the cycle analysis will define them. And we will have the capital to act because we didn't bleed it out chasing countertrend bounces in a bear market.

That is the compounding advantage of patience. It's not just about avoiding losses. It's about being able to act with maximum size when the setup is maximum quality.

The 2022 lows into the 2023 recovery was the last example of that opportunity. Those who stayed in cash through the worst of 2022 and entered in the 15k to 17k zone on BTC made the most meaningful returns of the cycle. That is the archetype for what we're positioning toward now.

One final thing.

Some members questioned the bearish thesis when CT was calling 120k. Some left. The market has now answered that question directly.

I don't hold any resentment toward the members who left. This community is not for everyone. Holding an unpopular thesis through noise and social pressure is one of the hardest things to do in trading. Not everyone has the framework or the temperament for it.

For the members who stayed and held cash through all of it, this is your moment to stay the course a little longer. The hard part was the waiting. What comes next is the reward for that patience.

The calls will be heavy when we reach the target zone. You will not miss them. That is the commitment.

Stay in USDC. Watch the levels. Wait for the signal.

Victor