Everyone is staring at support lines.
Trendlines.
Moving averages.

But the metric that quietly matters in deep drawdowns isn’t always on your TradingView chart.

It’s the Long Term Holder Realized Price.

Let me explain this clearly.

This metric calculates the average price at which long-term holders acquired their Bitcoin, counting only coins that have not moved for at least 155 days.

In simple terms:

It shows you the average cost basis of the strongest hands in the market.

Right now, that number sits around 40k.

Look at the chart carefully.

Historically, whenever Bitcoin trades below the Long Term Holder Realized Price, two things happen:

This isn’t hype.

This is on-chain data showing where conviction historically rebuilds.

Long term holders are not day traders.

They are:
• Miners
• Institutions
• Early accumulators
• Cycle veterans

If price drops below their average cost basis, it creates a rare environment.

Not panic.

Opportunity.

Historically, buying under the LTH realized price has been an excellent risk-reward zone.

Every prior cycle where price traded beneath it marked:
• Late bear market
• Maximum pessimism
• Strong long term entries

That doesn’t mean it V-bottoms immediately.

It means risk shifts in your favor over time.

If 40k is the realized price for long term holders:

Any sustained move below that level would:

• Put strong hands underwater
• Force weak hands out
• Create forced selling
• Trigger deep value accumulation

That combination historically leads to eventual reversal.

Not instantly.

But structurally.

I’m not waiting for a single candle.

I’m not going all in on hope.

Here’s how I’m thinking about it:

• I will begin dollar cost averaging under [discord]
• I expect strongest value between [ discord] and [discord]
• I consider [discord] or lower unlikely, but never impossible
• If a wick happens, I want limit orders ready

Markets don’t send invitations.

They wick.

And when they wick, they move fast.

If we see a flush to 30k, it would represent roughly a 70 percent correction from the highs.

Sound extreme?

That’s actually consistent with prior cycles.

Bitcoin has corrected:
• 80+ percent in early cycles
• 70+ percent in 2018
• Over 70 percent in 2022

It’s historically the reset.

Does this mean price must go to 40k?

No.

Does this mean it cannot go below 30k?

Also no.

The point isn’t prediction.

The point is preparation.

There is no reason to assume this cycle behaves dramatically different from every previous liquidity contraction.

If we enter a true bear market:

• Moving averages break
• Support fails
• Sentiment collapses
• And price overshoots

But on-chain value metrics eventually anchor price.

And the LTH realized price has been one of the strongest anchors we’ve seen historically.

This isn’t:
“Buy because it feels cheap.”

This is:
“Buy because strong hands historically accumulate here.”

That’s a big difference.

One is emotional.

One is structural.

If price drops to 40k:

• Twitter will call for 20k
• Influencers will scream collapse
• Headlines will say cycle is dead

Exactly like before.

And exactly when long term holders quietly add.

The market always feels worst near structural value.

That’s the trap.

If we never revisit 40k, great.

That means structure held stronger.

If we do revisit it, I’m ready.

And if we overshoot to 30k with a wick, I’ll be even more ready.

Not because I “know” it’s the bottom.

But because historically, buying under the Long Term Holder Realized Price has been one of the best asymmetrical entries in Bitcoin’s history.

Preparation beats prediction.

Always.

If you want the exact execution plan, layered DCA structure, and how I combine this with options income strategies so I’m not just waiting in cash, that’s discussed inside the community.

Free room for structure and context and the levels that I miss out here.
Paid Discord for full execution and positioning.

Links are pinned.

Stay solvent. Stay ready.

Victor