60k.
You’ve seen it repeated everywhere.
“Strong support.”
“Macro demand.”
“Institutions won’t let it fall.”
Let me tell you what actually happens at obvious support.
Liquidity builds under it.
Equal lows form.
Retail longs stack stops just below.
Leverage increases because “it can’t go lower.”
And then one impulsive candle wipes it.
That’s not manipulation.
That’s mechanics.
The 2022 Reminder
In 2022, 33k was “the floor.”
It wasn’t.
Once it broke, we didn’t just dip.
We nuked another 50%.
From 33k to 16k.
Five months of pain.
Now I’m not saying we repeat that exactly.
But if 60k breaks and accepts below?
You must treat it as structural change.
Not a shakeout.
That’s the difference between a tourist and an operator.
The 3 Scenarios You Must Prepare For
Right now there are only three paths.
Scenario 1 – Clean Breakout Above Range
We reclaim range highs with volume and weekly close.
If that happens:
You do not chase.
You wait for retest.
You size appropriately.
You define invalidation.
Breakouts in chop fail more often than they continue.
Scenario 2 – Liquidity Sweep Below 60k
Quick flush.
Panic wick.
Social media screams bear market.
Then reclaim.
That is where smart money accumulates.
But only if:
• Reclaim holds
• Volume confirms
• BTC.D doesn’t explode upward
Blind catching knives is gambling.
Structured reclaim trading is strategy.
Scenario 3 – True Breakdown
Weekly close below.
Lower high forms.
BTC.D expansion.
ETH/BTC bleeds.
That’s not a dip.
That’s a regime shift.
And if that happens, your job is not to buy aggressively.
Your job is to defend capital.
Most traders fail here because ego overrides structure.
The Math Nobody Talks About
If you buy 60k and we drop to 40k:
That’s -33%.
If you buy 60k and we drop to 30k:
That’s -50%.
Now ask yourself:
Is your allocation sized for that possibility?
Or are you mentally saying “it won’t happen”?
Markets punish certainty.
What I’m Watching This Week
Here’s the real alpha.
1. Open interest behavior during small pumps
If OI rises aggressively on weak price movement, it means leverage is building.
2. Funding rates
If funding flips positive quickly on minor rallies, that’s overconfidence.
3. Volume profile
If 60k is low-volume node, price slices through fast.
4. BTC dominance
If BTC.D expands while price chops, alts are dead weight.
These are not opinions.
These are measurable signals.
And starting March 2, these are exactly the metrics I’ll be breaking down inside the paid newsletter.
Not vague commentary.
Precise execution models.
Here’s What Changes March 2
Free readers:
You’ll still get context.
Paid readers:
You’ll get:
• Exact invalidation levels
• Allocation percentages
• Liquidity heatmap zones
• If/then action plans
• Weekly Chop Survival Playbook modules
And remember:
Paid Discord includes paid newsletter.
Execution room + blueprint together.
If you join before March 6:
You get 2 weeks trial.
After that, trial closes.
No extensions.
Let me be very honest with you.
March is not going to be easy.
Chop is harder than crashes.
Because crashes are obvious.
Chop kills slowly.
If you’re serious about surviving this phase and positioning correctly for the next expansion leg:
This is your window.
March 2 the paywall goes live.
Email 3 tomorrow morning.
We’ll talk about why most traders size too big and don’t even realize it.
Victor
