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Today’s 2nd part on my bear market advice
The hardest part of a bear market is not the crash.
The hardest part is the waiting.
The boredom. The fake pumps. The small rallies that make you question a plan you were fully confident in a week ago. The constant feeling that maybe the bottom is already in, and if you do not buy now, you will miss the entire next bull market.
I have been there before. Twice.
In 2018, I was too eager. I treated every bounce like it was the start of the next cycle. I bought too early, more than once, and I underestimated two things at the same time. How long the market could stay weak, and how brutal the final phase of a bear market actually gets right before it ends.
In 2022, I had more experience and I still made a version of the same mistake. I respected the thesis. I knew where this was probably heading. I did not respect the timing enough, and that gap between being right and being early cost me.
That is the painful truth about this asset class. Being right on the bigger picture is not enough. You can be right that BTC goes much higher in the next cycle. You can be right that ETH, SOL, HYPE, and other strong names eventually recover hard. If your timing is too early, your sizing is too aggressive, and your cash management is weak, the market will still find a way to punish you for being right too soon.
That is why this cycle I am doing things differently.
In partnership with
Right now I am 100% USDC.
Not because I am bearish forever. Not because I think crypto is dead. Not because I want to be the smartest person in any room. I am 100% USDC because I respect the bear market, and I have already learned twice what happens to people who do not.
Based on the last few cycles, my current view is that we likely have somewhere around three to five months left before this bear market fully ends. Could the market bottom earlier than that? Yes. Could we get fake pumps before the real bottom? Absolutely. Could BTC rally hard enough that everyone starts feeling like they missed it? Of course it could. That is exactly how bear markets trap impatient people. They create just enough hope to pull people back in early, then punish weak positioning right when it matters most.
This is why patience matters more than almost anything else at this stage.
My job right now is not to catch every ten percent pump. My job is to protect capital. My job is to wait for the point where risk to reward is heavily in my favor instead of roughly even. My job is to stay emotionally clean so that when the real opportunity actually shows up, I can act decisively instead of hesitating because I already spent my conviction on three false starts.
Most people think sitting in USDC means doing nothing. That is wrong, and it is worth saying clearly. Being in USDC is a position. It means I have optionality. It means I can buy when other people are being forced to sell. It means I am not emotionally trapped inside a drawdown, second guessing every decision while the account bleeds. It means I can actually think clearly instead of reacting.
This is the advantage most retail traders throw away without realizing it. They are so desperate to be early that they lose the ability to be aggressive when it actually counts. Being early and being wrong feels almost identical from inside a losing position. The account does not care which one it was.
I do not want to repeat my 2018 mistake. I do not want to repeat my 2022 mistake. This time I want to be patient first and aggressive later, in that order, on purpose.
For now, here is where I stand. I stay in USDC. I keep watching the structure underneath this market rather than the headlines sitting on top of it. I wait for fear, not excitement, because fear is where the actual opportunity lives. If a final capitulation comes, I want to be ready with full size and a clear head. If it does not come, I am still comfortable DCAing conservatively from here into the end of the year rather than forcing a decision I am not ready to make.
What I refuse to do is let impatience push me into a bad position just because waiting has started to feel uncomfortable.
This is the season where money moves from emotional traders to disciplined traders. It always is, at this stage of every cycle. The next bull market will reward the people who had cash, patience, and conviction during the ugly months, not the people who were loudest about calling the bottom six times before it actually arrived.
So the message this week is simple. Do not confuse activity with progress. Do not confuse a green candle with a confirmed cycle reversal. Do not confuse impatience with conviction, because they feel similar in the moment and they are not the same thing at all.
The bear market is almost never won by the person who buys first. It is won by the person who survives long enough to buy well.
In the premium issue this week I walk through the specific mistakes I made in both 2018 and 2022 in more detail, the exact list of things I am watching before I move a single dollar out of USDC, and what a real capitulation actually needs to look like on my charts before I trust it.
