The Great Altseason Debate: Timing, Liquidity, and the Endgame

Money flows where attention goes.

In 2024, all eyes were on Bitcoin—and that’s exactly where the money went.

Alts?
They never stood a real chance.

“But bro, we had Altseasons! Memes, AI coins, RWAs, dino coins…”

No. That wasn’t Altseason—that was a liquidity game, a brutal PvP battle where capital just rotated within the ecosystem.

Let’s break this down.

The Altcoin Liquidity Illusion

Think about it.

• People dumped utility coins to chase memes.

• Memes went parabolic, but once the hype died, money rotated back.

• Overall liquidity in the Alt market? Same. Just shuffled around.

Example:
When Solana ($SOL) ran hard, what happened to Ethereum ($ETH)?

Nothing. ETH slept while SOL soared.

Why?
Pump.fun, meme gambling, and speculation. But more importantly—no new money flowed in.

It was just Ethereum bag holders selling ETH to chase the Solana hype train.

Bitcoin: The Only Asset With True Fresh Capital

If you’re still skeptical, ask yourself:

• Why did Bitcoin go parabolic, while the broader Altcoin market just saw short-lived rotations?

• Why did we see record-breaking ETF inflows into BTC but not a comparable surge in Alts?

• Why was every mainstream financial institution talking about Bitcoin as an asset class, but ignoring the broader crypto market?

Because Bitcoin was the only asset attracting fresh capital this cycle.

This is why we haven’t seen true Altseason yet.

Refining My Thesis: Timing the Endgame

I’ve spent the past few weeks diving deep into cycles, macro trends, and liquidity flows.

Here’s where I stand:

• We are earlier in the cycle than most think.

• The endgame remains unchanged—an Altseason-driven euphoria phase still has to play out.

• The timeline? It has shifted, but the structure is still intact.

What’s Next?

🟢 March–April/early May: Strong run-up, potential macro top.
🟠 If no top in this window: Expect a summer cooldown, then a cycle peak aligning with the classic 4-year cycle (end of year).

It’s Not “If.” It’s “When.”

Most people are impatient. They assume that because Altseason hasn’t arrived yet, it won’t happen at all.

That’s not how cycles work.

I don’t care what X influencers and armchair analysts say—the liquidity, psychology, and mechanics of market cycles tell a different story.

And as always, my money is where my mouth is - always in 9-5 traders community

See you on the other side.

Victor