• Digital Vault
  • Posts
  • The Next Altcoin Run: What the Charts Are Telling Us

The Next Altcoin Run: What the Charts Are Telling Us

Author

Digital Vault
March 09, 2025

If you've been feeling like altcoins are stuck in limbo, there’s a reason for it.

And if history repeats itself, we might be on the edge of something big.

Let’s talk about USDT dominance (USDT.D)—a critical but often overlooked indicator that has signaled every major altcoin rally over the last year.

What Is USDT Dominance, and Why Does It Matter?

USDT.D tracks the percentage of total crypto market cap held in USDT (Tether). When it rises, it means people are moving into stablecoins, likely selling riskier assets (alts and BTC) to take shelter. But when it drops, the opposite happens—capital flows from stablecoins into crypto, igniting altcoin rallies.

The USDT Dominance Playbook: 2024 Case Studies

Let’s look at what happened the last two times USDT.D retraced:

1️⃣ March 2024: The First Mini Altcoin Run

  • USDT.D rejected off resistance and dropped by 55%.

  • During this period, BTC broke past $50K into the high $60Ks, setting the stage for alts.

  • AI, Layer 2s, and Real-World Asset (RWA) tokens surged first, with 100-300% gains across top picks.

2️⃣ December 2024: Meme Mania and The Second Alt Run

  • Another 41% drop in USDT.D, coinciding with BTC pushing toward new all-time highs (ATHs).

  • Altcoins that had lagged behind started catching up.

  • Memecoins like WIF, PEPE, and DOGE exploded—some doing 3-5x in just weeks.

  • BTC dominance peaked, capital rotated, and alts took off like a rocket.

Now (March 2025?): The Setup Is Here Again

  • USDT.D is back at key resistance, testing levels where past retracements led to major alt runs.

  • Stochastic RSI is overbought on the weekly timeframe—just like it was in March and December 2024.

  • This suggests that once we see weakness in USDT.D, capital will start flowing into alts again.

But remember, this is a weekly chart, not a 5-minute scalp setup. These moves take weeks, not hours, to play out.

How to Position for the Next Alt Run

1️⃣ Watch for USDT.D breakdowns. If we start to see clear rejection at resistance, it’s time to start rotating into high-quality altcoins.
2️⃣ Follow BTC dominance. When BTC dominance peaks and starts declining, it’s a signal that capital is leaving BTC for altcoins.
3️⃣ Pick the right narratives. Look at sectors that have fundamental catalysts, not just hype.

  • AI tokens (NVIDIA earnings, ChatGPT integrations)

  • RWA tokens (as TradFi continues tokenization efforts)

  • L2 solutions (especially those with new incentive programs)

Final Thoughts: When, Not If

If this pattern continues, we’re not talking about “if” alts will run—but when.

Most people wait for green candles to buy. The smart ones position before the breakout.

Are you ready?

If you don’t know where to start, that’s exactly what we do inside 9-5 Traders.

See you inside

Victor