This is the issue I've been waiting to write for months.
Not because the bear market is over. Not because the macro low is confirmed. But because for the first time in this entire bear phase, both BTC and ETH are showing RSI bullish divergence on the daily chart simultaneously while sitting near or inside their respective DCA zones.
Let me give you the complete picture.
The Week in Numbers First.
Discord entries this week and where they sit now.
SOL entered at 72. Currently 77.31. Up roughly 7%.
BTC entered at 59.7k. Currently 61,590. Up roughly 3.2%.
ETH entered at 1,570. Currently 1,712. Up roughly 9%.
All three starter positions are working. All three sized appropriately for the uncertainty of the current environment at roughly 5% of reserved capital each. None of these are full conviction positions. They are the first step in a staged accumulation framework.
Options book:
ETH-17JUL26-1400-P Short: +74.12% ROI, PNL $42.80
ETH-31JUL26-1400-P Short: +61.02% ROI, PNL $61.15
Total options account value: $2,101.16 from a $2,000 starting point. Up 5% on the challenge account.
Combined, the framework is performing across both the spot DCA entries and the options positioning. Now let me explain the technical context that gives me the most confidence I've had in weeks.
BTC - 61,590. RSI Bullish Divergence. Full Trendline Context.
The BTC daily chart now shows a clear RSI 14 bullish divergence. The yellow lines on the RSI panel mark this precisely. Price made its most recent low below the prior significant low. The RSI during that most recent low printed higher than the RSI at the prior low. Higher RSI with lower price is the definition of bullish divergence. Momentum is weakening on the downside even as price was making new lows.
This divergence is forming inside the DCA zone. The red boundary at 60,092.4 marks the upper edge of the green DCA zone box on the chart. BTC has spent recent sessions oscillating around this level. The entry at 59.7k was placed inside the zone deliberately. The divergence printing while price is inside the zone adds technical weight to the accumulation thesis.
Let me give you the full structural context alongside the divergence.
The yellow descending channel structure from the highs is visible on the chart with two parallel yellow boundaries defining the decline. The small ascending structure near current price is a tight wedge forming inside the DCA zone. Ascending wedges inside DCA zones after significant declines are classic base-building patterns. They don't always succeed, but they are the right pattern to see at this stage.
The red horizontal supply zone sits between roughly 82k and 85k on the chart. This remains the macro ceiling. Nothing in the big picture changes until BTC closes weekly candles above that zone.
The yellow horizontal at 74,223.9 is the first major resistance above current price inside the channel structure. Getting from 61.6k to 74.2k would be roughly a 20% move and would represent a genuine recovery toward the middle of the channel structure. That's the medium-term target if the divergence and the DCA zone base-building continue to develop.
67,319.6 and 65,197 are the resistance levels between current price and 74,223.9. Both need to be cleared with daily closes and follow-through volume before 74,223.9 becomes a realistic near-term target.
Below current price, 60,092.4 remains the reference line between being inside the DCA zone and being above it. My BTC entry at 59.7k has a defined stop consideration below the DCA zone lower boundary. I'm not giving that exact stop publicly but premium members know the framework.
48,980.6 is the mid-zone reference within the DCA box. If BTC moves into that range, it triggers the second tranche accumulation consideration.
The cycle timing context: Oct 6 2026 is marked on the chart as 365 days from the 2025 top. We are currently in early July 2026. That puts us inside the macro low window with approximately three months remaining before the cycle timing target. Base-building and RSI divergence forming inside this window is the setup the patience has been for.
ETH - 1,712. RSI Bullish Divergence. DCA Zone Proximity. Full Level Map.
ETH has the identical RSI divergence pattern to BTC on the daily chart. The yellow lines on the RSI panel show price making the most recent low below the prior low while RSI held higher. Simultaneous divergence on both BTC and ETH is a stronger signal than either asset in isolation.
The "Drop of 42%" annotation on the chart marks the context clearly. From the failed breakout above the red supply zone near 2,800 to 2,900, ETH has declined 42%. The blue circle marks where the failed breakout occurred. That failure was the signal that started this entire decline and it's now documented as a reference on the chart.
The ETH entry at 1,570 was placed just above the DCA zone boundary at 1,385.43. Current price at 1,712 represents approximately 9% above the entry in a few days. That's the benefit of having the levels mapped before the entry rather than chasing the bounce.
Let me give you the complete level structure.
Above current price, 1,742.08 is the first resistance. This was the support level that broke during the decline and has now flipped to overhead resistance. A daily close above 1,742.08 would be the first micro confirmation that the bounce has genuine follow-through.
1,814.98 is the next level above that. Then 1,899.23. These two levels sit close together and represent a resistance cluster from the mid-bear phase price action. Getting through both on daily closes with volume would be meaningfully constructive.
2,625.34 is the upper channel boundary and the level below the red supply zone. This is the medium-term target if the macro picture turns, aligned with the cycle timing window. A move from 1,570 entry to 2,625 would be roughly 67%. That's the kind of asymmetric move that patient accumulation at the DCA zone is positioned for.
3,401.82 is the dotted resistance above 2,625.34. Then the red dotted line at 4,952.91 marks the previous cycle ATH. These are the longer-term references.
Below current price:
1,538.86 is the first floor below 1,712. A daily close below 1,538.86 would be a warning that the bounce is failing.
1,385.43 is the top of the DCA zone. Price bounced from just above this level rather than entering the zone deeply. That's a constructive sign but not conclusive.
Inside the DCA zone: 1,073.18 is the mid-zone reference and 885.58 is the lower boundary.
The Options Strategy Shift: From Short Calls to Short Puts.
This week's options positioning represents a meaningful strategic shift that premium members should understand.
For months I was running short calls on ETH. The thesis was bearish. ETH was not going to reach those strike levels by expiry. That strategy worked. We had multiple rounds of short calls across strikes from 1,750 to 2,250 that all expired worthless or closed in profit.
This week I shifted to short puts at the 1,400 strike. This is a different expression. Short puts profit when ETH stays above the strike price. At 1,400 with ETH at 1,712, there is 312 points of buffer before the position is challenged.
Why 1,400? Because 1,385.43 is the top of the ETH DCA zone. Selling puts at 1,400 is effectively saying: I don't believe ETH goes below the DCA zone before expiry, and if it does, I'm willing to buy ETH at that level. It's a put-selling strategy aligned with the accumulation thesis. Collect premium above the DCA zone. Willing to own ETH at the DCA zone if assigned.
Both positions are in profit:
ETH-17JUL26-1400-P: +74.12% on entry price of 0.0170 ETH, now marked at 0.0044 ETH.
ETH-31JUL26-1400-P: +61.02% on entry price of 0.0295 ETH, now marked at 0.0115 ETH.
The $2000 challenge account is now $2,101.16 after a week of trading. The intention with this challenge is to document the options framework in real time from a defined starting capital with transparent position sizing.
The complete framework going into next week
BTC RSI divergence confirmed on daily. Inside DCA zone. Entry at 59.7k in profit. Yellow ascending structure forming at the base.
ETH RSI divergence confirmed on daily. Above DCA zone. Entry at 1,570 in profit. First resistance at 1,742 in sight.
Options strategy shifted from short calls to short puts aligned with the DCA zone accumulation thesis.
Spot entries: SOL 72, BTC 59.7k, ETH 1,570. All working.
Cycle timing: October 2026 macro low window approaches. We are building positions in the window.
This is not the all-clear. It is the first technical setup with real substance behind it. The divergence needs to be followed by confirmed higher lows. The levels above need to be cleared with volume. The indicator framework needs to continue showing stablecoin dominance peaking and TOTAL3 stabilising.
But the pieces are assembling. The patience is starting to pay.
Updates in real time as the structure develops.
Have a good weekend.
Victor
