Let me be straight with you.

This week felt like a turning point for a lot of people. SPX pushed above. BTC bounced. ETH stabilised. The headlines got optimistic. And retail started asking whether the bottom was in.

It wasn't.

I've been in 100% cash for weeks now. And after looking at all three charts this Friday, nothing has changed my mind. Let me walk you through what I'm seeing and why I'm staying patient.

BTC - 77.5k and stalling

Bitcoin is sitting at 77k as I write this.

On the surface, that looks constructive. But when you zoom out and look at what happened above, the picture changes.

We ran up to the 82-83k range. Clean rejection off. Price came all the way back down in days. That's not the behaviour of a market that wants to go higher. That's distribution. Someone sold into strength and retail bought the breakout.

Now we're back at 77.5k, holding on a trendline, with 78.3k as the first resistance above. That level needs to flip to support before I even start watching for entries. Below, 76k and 75k are the key zones. A daily close below 75k would be a meaningful breakdown, not just a dip.

ETH - 2,131 and structurally weak

ETH is in a worse position than BTC.

We broke through 2,200 support earlier this week. That level is now resistance overhead. Price wicked down to 2,061, found some buyers, and bounced back to 2,131. That's where we are now.

The ascending trendline from the lows is technically still intact on the daily timeframe, but price is barely hanging above it. One more red session and that support is gone. Below 2,061, the next significant zone is 1,941. That's a long way down from here.

The thing that concerns me most about ETH isn't the price. It's the relative weakness. ETH continues to underperform BTC on a ratio basis. When the second largest crypto can't hold its ground during a BTC bounce, that tells you liquidity is not rotating into risk assets. It's sitting on the sidelines.

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SPX - The chart everyone needs to see this week

This is the most important development of the week.

SPX printed a bearish engulfing candle right at the highs near 7,500. For those unfamiliar, a bearish engulfing candle means the red candle's body completely swallowed the prior green candle's body. It signals that sellers overwhelmed buyers at a key level.

I had been watching 7,000 as the line in the sand.

That is the market telling you something directly. Someone with size sold hard into that breakout. Institutions do not panic. They distribute. And that candle is what distribution looks like on a daily chart.

First support below is 7,043. If that level breaks on a daily close, we are looking at 6,525 as the next target. A weekly close below 6,525 would be a significant structural breakdown that changes the medium-term picture entirely.

But we could go even higher, but watch out for bearish divergence or a double top.

I'm not predicting that outcome. I'm preparing for it. That is the difference between reacting and planning.

Why I'm still in cash

I know sitting in cash feels uncomfortable when prices are moving. There's always a fear of missing out. The green candles look tempting. The bounce narratives are convincing.

But here's what I keep coming back to.

Every rally this cycle has been sold. Every breakout has failed. Liquidity conditions have not meaningfully improved. The macro environment is still tightening at the margins. Central banks are not pivoting. Risk assets respond to liquidity first, fundamentals second.

Until I see confirmed structure, I am not putting capital at risk.

Confirmed structure means: higher lows holding on a daily timeframe, key resistance levels flipping to support with volume, and the broader macro picture showing signs of a genuine turn. Right now, none of those boxes are checked.

When the macro low is in, the setup will be obvious. You will not need to guess. The chart will tell you. And when that moment comes, I will be publishing the exact levels, the entry criteria, and the position sizing logic.

That is what patient capital does. It waits for the high-probability moment. Then it acts with conviction.

What I'm watching next week

Three things on my radar.

First, whether BTC can reclaim and hold 78.3k. A few days of consolidation above that level with volume would be the first sign worth paying attention to.

Second, whether SPX break through 7.5k or breaks down through it. That single level will tell us a lot about the strength of institutional buying interest.

Third, ETH dominance and the BTC dominance chart. When BTC dominance starts falling and ETH starts outperforming, that's when the real alt season signal comes. We are nowhere near that right now.

Until then, cash is the position. Cash is not a loss. Cash is optionality. And optionality is the most valuable asset in a bear market.

Have a good weekend. Stay patient.

If you want to follow this analysis live, get the exact re-entry levels before they move, and see the full position sizing framework when we do enter, come join the community at www.whop.com/digitalvault1. That's where the real work happens.

See you on the other side.

Victor