Another week in the books. Let me give you the honest picture across all three charts before the weekend.
The summary version: BTC is holding a bounce but structurally damaged. ETH is in freefall territory with a 42% drop annotated on the chart. SPX is rolling over from all-time highs. The macro thesis is unchanged. Still 100% cash. Still waiting for the real opportunity.
Let me take you through each one.
BTC - 63.6k. Bouncing. Not recovering.
BTC closed the week at 63.6k. It spent most of the week between 60k and 65k, grinding sideways in a zone that is making a lot of people uncomfortable on both sides.
The bulls are pointing to the fact that BTC didn't break 60k on a sustained basis and calling it a hold. That's one way to read it. The other way to read it is that we've lost 75k, lost 65.2k, and are now sitting in the gap between those broken levels and the green DCA zone below 60k. That's not a recovery. That's a pause.
The levels above that matter as resistance going into next week are 65.2k and then 75k. Both of those are far from where we are. Getting back to 65.2k from 63.6k is only a 2.5% move and the market has shown it can do that intraday. But sustaining above 65.2k on a daily close and then pushing toward 75k is a completely different ask. That requires a change in the environment that we haven't seen.
Below current price, 60.1k is the immediate line in the sand. It's only 5.5% below current price. The green DCA zone that I've been building toward sits below that level. I've been marking it on the chart for weeks. Getting into that zone is not a reason to panic. It's the region where the real opportunity starts to build.
The 49k level is the deeper reference below the green zone. I keep it on the chart because it matters for the macro picture and for the DCA zone boundary on the lower end.
My position: unchanged. 100% cash. The bounce this week is not the signal I'm waiting for.
ETH - 1.7k. The 42% Drop. What It Means.
From the area where CT was calling for recovery back to 3k+, ETH has dropped 42%. People who bought the narrative and entered in the 2.8k to 3k range are now sitting on losses of that magnitude. That's not a correction. That's a reckoning.
ETH at 1.7k is now sitting below every meaningful level that defined the recovery attempt from the lows earlier this year. The channel that held price through months of chop, the 2k psychological level, the 1.9k support, the 1.8k level. All of them lost on a sustained basis.
Above current price, 1.9k is the first resistance. Then 1.8k has now flipped from support to resistance. Both levels are below where people need ETH to be to break even if they bought in the 2k to 2.2k range earlier this year. That overhead supply of trapped buyers is part of what makes recovery difficult in a bear environment.
The full picture of where the DCA zone sits, what the entry criteria look like inside it, and what conditions I need to see before deploying, that's a premium-only conversation. What I can say here is that the opportunity is being built toward. We're not there yet. But the chart is getting closer to the zone where patient capital gets to work.
SPX - 7.4k. Peak confirmed. Rolling over.
SPX printed the high near 7.6k and has since pulled back to 7.4k. The bearish engulfing candle I discussed earlier this week at 7,544 is now being validated by continued weakness. Two hundred points off the highs in a week is not noise.
The 7k level is the one I've been watching as the first real test of whether this is a minor pullback or the beginning of something more significant. We're roughly 400 points above it right now. At the rate of decline this week, 7k comes into view in the next few sessions if selling continues.
Below 7k, 6.5k and 6.3k are the next supports. And 6.1k is the deeper floor on the chart. The distance from today's 7.4k to 6.1k is roughly 18%. In SPX terms that's a meaningful correction. Not unprecedented. Not even unusual in a mid-term year with re-accelerating inflation. But definitely uncomfortable for anyone who has been long since the March lows.
I am not positioned in equities. But the SPX chart matters for crypto because it tells you where liquidity is and where it's going. If SPX rolls over from these levels toward 7k and below, that liquidity has to go somewhere. The question is whether it goes back into crypto at lower prices or stays in stablecoins and fixed income.
The inflation data we got this week, with CPI re-accelerating toward 3.8%, gives the Fed no room to cut. That keeps yields elevated. That keeps pressure on equities. That keeps the macro environment hostile for risk assets.
The week in summary
BTC bouncing but not recovering. ETH down 42% from the narrative peak with the DCA zone still below current price. SPX rolling over from all-time highs with inflation providing no relief.
I'm in 100% cash. The thesis from March is playing out. The calls will be heavy when the real setup arrives. We're not there yet but the distance to the DCA zones is smaller than it was a month ago.
Have a good weekend. Stay patient.
Victor
