Victor's Monday Market Outlook

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Markets spent the week crawling, not sprinting. Most cryptos closed lower, though $SOL showed brief sparks. Overall? A sea of indecision. Perfect timing for that weary end-of-month fatigue.

Everyone’s comparing this to ‘21 fractals. Everybody’s dropping the “September is weak” stat. Guess what? That bearish noise? That’s what lights the fuel for the next squeeze. When everyone’s bearish, the trend isn't done, it's just cooking.

The Fear & Greed Index sits at 39, fearful zone, even though prices hover near all-time highs. That disconnect tells me capital isn’t bailing; it's just pausing, watching, lining up. That’s the kind of breath-holding before RALLIES.

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Bitcoin: Bleeding, But Not Broken

Bitcoin snapped a support level this past week. That’s not fatal, it’s just a warning. The structure got hit, and you can feel the anxiety bleed through the trading chat. But structure isn’t gone until the structure is broken repeatedly.

What it needs now:

• Time to digest the drop.

• A reclaim of the failed level.

• If that happens, flip the narrative. Stop watching it bleed. Start watching it bounce.

I’m not panicking. I’m watching for the flip.

Let’s talk history.

In past bull cycles (2013, 2017, 2021):

• August ended green.

• September flipped red.

2025 broke that pattern.

• August closed red. Likely the market front-running September’s usual weakness.

But here’s what’s interesting:

• The last 2 years, when August closed red → September flipped green.

That’s exactly what could play out now.
Especially with BTC dominance forming a short-term bottom and TOTAL3/BTC dropping into range lows.
Translation: alts are winding up, and BTC might surprise to the upside if fear gets overdone.

Ethereum: Still Strong

Everyone’s acting like ETH just died. It didn’t. It just paused.

The diagonal and horizontal supports are intact. This is a normal breather in a strong uptrend. The underperformance chatter is bullshit, ETH hasn’t broken down.

ETH’s history in bull runs (2017, 2021):

• August ended green.

• September printed red.

This year (2025):

• August ended green again.

So the question: do we get another red September?

I’m watching closely, but I’m not blindly betting on history repeating.

Why?
Because if a pullback comes, it might just be a wick down intramonth and still close small red… or even green.

The danger? Waiting for “end of September” just because you expect a red candle. The market doesn’t care about your calendar.

If the drop comes earlier, or spills into October, it won’t matter.

Total Market Cap: Holding Footing

Global crypto market cap is dancing around $3.75-3.85T, with resistance forming near $4T. It’s not bleeding. It’s consolidating.

The money’s still in the game, no capitulation yet. That means when stimulus arrives, whether from macro or sentiment, the rockets are still fueled.

Altcoins & Market Structure

• Bitcoin Dominance: Still clinging to 56–57%. If BTC stops bleeding, dominance could fall to 50%. That’s a green light for alts.

• ETH/BTC: Upward trajectory intact. That’s bullish for Ethereum and alt season if BTC stalls.

• Total 2 (alt-only cap): Tight consolidation, building tension. A slow BTC drop could light that fuse and send alts flying.

My Take

The lesson is simple:

• History gives context.

• Charts give confirmation.

September has a reputation for weakness, but reputation doesn’t pay bills. Watching price action does.

As of now:

• BTC looks like it front-ran a pullback.

• ETH is still holding trend and could squeeze higher.

• Alts are waiting on BTC dominance to crack.

Don’t get trapped by seasonal bias.
Charts are still king.

You didn’t hear it from the headlines. You heard it from the trenches.

The crowd sleeps on this. They see indecision. I see setup. The stubborn “September sucks” headlines? Perfect contrarian fuel.

This week is about positioning, not panicking. Crypto’s still in range discovery. When the door opens again, you’re either inside, or watching from the sidelines.

The rest of this breakdown – my exact re-entry levels and deployment plan – is only inside the group.

If you’re still sitting out, this is where you get left behind.
If you’re serious about turning this bull cycle into your exit plan, it’s time to stop trading blind.

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Survive. Execute. Collect.

No ego. No drama. Just execution.

Stay sharp.

-Victor