As I told you Friday, my approach hasn't changed.

But before that, we caught a clean sweet 25% move in SUI. (on Friday)

and on Sunday,

How’s that?

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Back to BTC update.

BTC broke 80k. ETH bounced back above 2,270. Everything on the surface looks constructive. And if you're a short-term trader, there's a case to be made for the bounce.

But my conviction is that the real bottom for this cycle has not formed. And this week I want to show you not just the price argument but the on-chain data argument.

Because the charts agree with me.

Let me be clear about what happened last week.

BTC invalidated the triple top and pushed above 80k. That was the scenario I laid out on Monday: close above 79.5k with volume and the path to 80k to 84k opens. It played out exactly as described.

The ascending channel from the February lows is intact. 80k is now the first support. 78k and 76k below that. The next meaningful resistance above is the 85k zone.

That's the short-term picture. It's constructive.

But here's the longer-term picture.

For a macro downtrend to be over, I need more than a price recovery. I need a higher low to form. BTC went from 107k down to 65k. The bounce to 80k to 84k is an intermediate rally. A higher low on the weekly chart, meaning a pullback that holds above 65k and then a new weekly higher high above 80k, is the structural confirmation I'm waiting for.

That sequence hasn't completed yet.

Until it does, the macro downtrend is my bias. The intermediate rally is real. The macro recovery is unconfirmed.

This is the part of the analysis most traders skip. They look at price and call a bottom. I look at what the chain is actually saying.

MVRV Z-Score: Not in the green zone yet.

The MVRV Z-Score measures whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued relative to its realized price. When it drops below zero, BTC is historically at its most undervalued. That's the green zone. That's where genuine bottoms form.

The minimum reading in this entire cycle was 0.26. The green zone was never touched. Current reading is approximately 0.86

In every prior major cycle, the MVRV Z-Score spent meaningful time below zero before the real bottom was confirmed. We skipped that phase entirely in this correction. That tells me either this cycle is genuinely different, or the full correction hasn't played out yet.

I'm not ready to call this cycle different.

NUPL: Still in Optimism, Not Capitulation.

Net Unrealized Profit and Loss measures the collective emotional state of all BTC holders. Values above 0.75 are euphoria. Values below zero are capitulation and fear. That's where genuine bottoms occur.

Current NUPL reading is approximately 0.29 to 0.33. That's the Optimism zone.

In the 2022 bear market, NUPL went negative and stayed negative for seven months before the real bottom formed. This cycle, NUPL has not gone negative once.

Zero capitulation in the data. Zero.

Realized Loss: Still Too Elevated.

Glassnode data shows realized losses are running at $479M per day, which is 140% above the cycle baseline. For a genuine recovery to take hold, this needs to compress below $200M per day. We're more than double that level.

High realized losses mean people are still selling at a loss in meaningful size. That's not the behaviour of a market that has found its bottom. That's a market still in the process of flushing out weak hands.

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ETH bounced back above the 2.27k H&S neckline I broke down last week. That bounce is real and I'm acknowledging it.

But the structure hasn't been repaired.

The H&S pattern I confirmed last week doesn't heal in three days. 2,404 is the next resistance above current price. 2,467 is where the head formed and represents the structural repair level. A weekly close above 2,467 is the first signal that the bearish pattern is failing to play out.

We're at 2,353. That's 114 points below 2,467.

The ascending dashed trendline from the recent lows is guiding this bounce. As long as ETH stays above it and above 2,270, the bounce has structural support. If either breaks on a daily close, the measured move toward 2,073 resumes.

I'm watching this bounce. Not buying it.

As I mentioned Friday, my approach in this environment is to generate income while waiting for the real bottom to form.

I'm selling call options into resistance.

The ETH 2,450 call expiring May 29 that I entered last week is +37%. ETH didn't reach 2,450 and the premium is decaying in my favour.

That's the approach. Sell premium at resistance. Collect income. Preserve capital for the real deployment.

When the on-chain indicators I described above begin to shift, when NUPL approaches zero, when MVRV Z-Score tests the green zone, when realized losses compress, when the STH/LTH crossover happens, that's when I buy spot with conviction.

None of those are happening right now.

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Victor