Victor's Monday Market Outlook

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Last week gave us what looked like a chance for relief,, volume picked up, we bounced off support, and sentiment began to tilt cautiously bullish.
But now that the weekly candle has closed… the truth is clear:

We didn’t get the bullish engulfing candle we needed.

No strong reversal structure.
No confirmation of strength.
Just another lower high, and a fading bounce.

And when a relief bounce fails to close strong, it usually means one thing: the market is still searching for equilibrium.

BTC Searching for the Sweep

On the weekly chart, BTC continues to sit between critical levels, 86k holding weakly, 73k still sitting below like a magnet.

What’s concerning is that we didn’t get the follow-through buyers were hoping for.
The weekly volume spike looked promising at first, but the lack of continuation turned it into what’s called an absorption candle, sellers overpowering buyers near resistance.

Technically, that puts us back into the same zone of uncertainty.
Without that engulfing confirmation, BTC is still hunting for liquidity.

The next logical step?
We now watch how price reacts around the previous lows.

The two possible paths from here:

1. Sweep & reclaim, BTC dips below last week’s low (around 85–83k), takes out stops, triggers liquidations, and reverses quickly.
   This is the ideal scenario for a liquidity sweep bottom, the kind that traps shorts and sets up a strong rebound.

2. Breakdown & continuation, BTC slices through support and heads toward the HTF zone at 73k, confirming further downside before any recovery.
   That’s the textbook continuation of a downtrend.

Right now, it’s too early to call which one will play out.
But we’re getting close.

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Daily Momentum Rolling Over

Zooming into the daily timeframe, the Stochastic RSI is curling down, not what bulls want to see after a weak weekly close.

Momentum is clearly stalling.
Every push into 89–90k has been met with heavy sell pressure.
Volume is tapering off as traders hesitate to commit.

It’s the same psychological pattern we saw before every breakdown this year:
hope → hesitation → exhaustion → liquidation.

Until that curl resets and turns back up, BTC remains vulnerable.

This isn’t about doom, it’s about respecting structure.
Momentum indicators are signaling a short-term cool-off, not a long-term collapse.

But the key difference this time is the macro context: we’re now several weeks below the 50-week SMA, and the market is testing patience.

When the daily and weekly both point down, the best play isn’t prediction, it’s protection.

What I’m Watching

I’m not trying to catch knives here.
At this stage, I’m focusing on reaction levels, not predictions.

85k–83k: first zone to watch.
If we sweep these lows and reclaim fast, that’s a tradable long setup.
You’ll know it’s real if the bounce comes with a strong volume spike and a daily close back above 87k.

73k–75k: HTF support.
This is where “everyone” wants to buy, which ironically means it might be the level that triggers one final flush before reversal.
If BTC wicks below this zone and rebounds, that would likely mark the cycle’s higher low.

Until either of those plays out, it’s patience mode.

This is where overtrading kills accounts.
You don’t force a setup in the middle of uncertainty, you let the structure reveal the next move.

Market Psychology

The sentiment right now is predictable.
Fear is up, patience is gone, and everyone’s either calling for 60k or praying for 120k.

But markets don’t move on prayers.
They move on liquidity.

When the Fear & Greed Index is this low, and when everyone’s waiting for the same “perfect” entry, that’s when reversals often happen earlier than expected.
That’s why I’m not fully out, I’m just positioned cautiously.

ETH, and SOL remain my core positions.
I’ve derisked alts for now, but I’m not abandoning exposure completely.

If BTC confirms a sweep reversal, I’ll re-enter heavier.
If it breaks down, I’ll be buying the blood in the 73k zone， not panicking with the crowd.

My Take

The weekly chart told us everything we needed:
No engulfing = no confidence.
Daily Stoch RSI curling down = momentum cooling.
That means one thing， patience over prediction.

We’re not here to call bottoms; we’re here to recognize them when they form.
Until then, all I’m doing is watching reactions and preserving firepower.

The structure is fragile, but that’s exactly how bottoms form， not in euphoria, but in exhaustion.

The real reversal won’t look clean.
It’ll be messy, emotional, and confusing， and by the time people “feel” safe, price will already be 20% higher.

So for now:

Don’t panic.

Don’t overtrade.

Don’t overleverage.

When the weekly finally prints that bullish engulfing candle, you’ll know it.
And when it does， that’s when the market turns from fear to greed again.

If you’re tired of trading blind through this chop, it’s time to get clarity.
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We didn’t get the engulfing candle this week.
But that just means the real setup is still loading.

Stay patient.
Stay ready.

Victor
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