Victor's Monday Market Outlook

In partnership with

Another wild week in crypto.
What started as cautious optimism has now turned into full-blown panic.
Liquidations everywhere.
Funding wiped.
Sentiment collapsed overnight.

And just like that, the same people who were shouting “we’re going to 130k” last week are now convinced we’re heading back to 70k.

That’s how quickly emotion flips in this market.

The Fear & Greed Index now sits at 14 out of 100: Extreme Fear.
It’s the first time we’ve been this low since April’s sell-off.
Back then, it was the same story: capitulation, despair, disbelief… followed by a sharp relief bounce that caught everyone off guard.

History doesn’t repeat perfectly, but it rhymes.

Whenever we reach this level of fear, buying tends to work out, not instantly, but over the next few weeks.
Right now, the smart play is to think ahead while everyone else is reacting emotionally.

Because while they panic, we plan.

BTC: The Breaking Point

BTC dropped another 11% from last week, making this the sixth consecutive red week.
And once again, it was the same pattern:
Sunday pump-Tuesday dump-liquidation cascade.

At this point, even a week of sideways chop would be welcome.

But here’s what matters:
BTC closed below the 50-week SMA for the first time this cycle.
That’s big.

We also just confirmed a death cross on the daily chart, and price hit the yearly open around 93k, just above the unfilled CME gap at 92k.

So what does this mean?

If BTC closes another weekly candle below the 50-week SMA, we flip bearish for now, until we reclaim it decisively.
That’s the line in the sand.

If we close back above, we treat this as a fakeout and look for continuation.
But if we stay below, this becomes a structural shift.

Here’s the nuance that most miss:
A death cross that happens below the 50-week SMA tends to confirm a mid-cycle correction rather than a continuation.
And that’s not a bad thing, it’s a chance to reset, to reload, and to rotate capital smartly.

So here’s my playbook:

• Derisk into the next relief bounce.

• Stay long-term exposed through BTC, ETH, and SOL, the majors.

• Avoid overleveraged alt exposure until confirmation returns.

This isn’t about panic-selling.
It’s about playing defense when the crowd’s still trying to fight the last battle.

We’ve hit the yearly open, nearing CME gap, and are trading at major support zones with Extreme Fear flashing red.

That’s not a time to short.
That’s a time to watch for a rebound, and to prepare for the next cycle setup.

I actually like the challenge now.
If BTC defies the “usual” cycle behavior, we’re playing a new game with new rules.
That’s evolution, and evolution always punishes the stubborn and rewards the adaptable.

Until proven otherwise, we play safe.
Let the market show us its hand.

Home insurance premiums are up by 9% this year

Home insurance costs continue to climb, with premiums rising over 9% this year and more than 60% in the past five years. However, coverage hasn’t kept pace, leaving many homeowners paying significantly more for less protection. With affordability becoming a growing concern, it’s more important than ever to compare options—check out Money’s handy home insurance tool to find the best fit for you.

Use tool

ETH: Divergence or Breakdown

ETH is testing everyone’s patience again.
Currently hovering around 3.1k, sitting just above critical Support 2 (3.0k zone).

That 3k level must hold, full stop.
Lose that, and we open a fast move toward 2.7k.

But here’s the silver lining:
Both daily and weekly RSI are showing a bullish divergence, price making lower lows while momentum flattens.

That’s the signal you usually get before a short-term reversal.
But for that divergence to play out, ETH must hold this level and not invalidate it with another flush.

So far, sellers are aggressive, but they’re also exhausting themselves.
Volumes spiked massively during the past two red candles, meaning most of the panic sellers have likely already dumped.

What comes next is the relief phase, the slow climb back up to test resistance around 3.5k–3.8k.
That’s where we’ll reassess momentum.

For now:

• Hold 3k.

• Protect divergence.

• Wait for confirmation candle before adding size.

If BTC stabilizes, ETH will bounce harder.
If BTC breaks 92k, ETH breaks 3k.

Simple.

My Take

We’ve entered Extreme Fear territory, the kind of zone where retail exits and long-term traders quietly accumulate.

The headlines scream crash.
The charts whisper reset.

We’re below the 50-week SMA.
We have a death cross.
Fear is maxed.

But you don’t grow by following the crowd.
You grow by understanding when the crowd has gone too far.

This is where discipline matters more than prediction.
Everyone wants the bottom tick, but the real win is staying solvent and positioned when the next uptrend begins.

For now, I’m focusing on structure, not noise.
I’m staying in the game, with BTC, ETH, and SOL, but light and strategic.
No blind alt rotations, no panic leverage, no emotional flips.

If we get a relief rally, I’ll derisk into strength.
If we drop further, I’ll reload near the next major support, calmly.

Because while everyone else reacts to the chart, I’m already thinking three moves ahead.

This is where conviction is tested.
If you’ve been with me since 75k BTC, you know this isn’t new.
Every cycle has this phase, fear, disbelief, exhaustion, right before the next leg.

Don’t waste it.

If you want to see how I’m positioning next, and how to navigate this phase without losing your edge, join 9-5 Traders Premium.
Full strategy breakdown, live setups, and daily rotation plans.

The fear is high.
But so is the opportunity.

Victor