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Bitcoin is not in a bull trend.
Not yet.
And pretending it is won’t make your portfolio recover faster.
Let’s strip the noise away.
Ignore the 4H candles.
Ignore the intraday wicks.
Ignore the dopamine.
This is what the weekly is telling you:
We lost 80k.
We lost 73.5k.
We are compressing above 60k.
That’s not bullish structure.
That’s post-breakdown stabilization.
The Big Picture
Previous cycle high printed around 126k.
Lower high formed around 97k.
Then breakdown.
That sequence matters.
High, lower High, breakdown.
That’s classic trend transition.
Now what we’re seeing is the first real weekly consolidation after the impulse down.
And historically, when markets consolidate after breakdowns, they usually do one of two things:
Retest the breakdown level and reject
Base slowly before the next leg lower
What they don’t usually do?
Instant V-shaped recoveries back into price discovery.
The weekly trend is not up until 73.5k is reclaimed and held.
Right now we are still in damage control mode.
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Key Weekly Levels
There is no narrative.
Only levels.
Resistance
• 73.5k – breakdown pivot
• 80.6k – range high
• 97.8k – major HTF resistance
Without reclaim of 73.5k on a weekly close, bias remains defensive.
You don’t argue with broken structure.
You respect it.
Support
• 60k – current range low
• 48.9k – next liquidity pocket
• 30–31k – macro DCA zone
If 60k breaks on a weekly close, that opens the door to a much deeper flush.
And those moves?
They don’t grind.
They accelerate.
What the Weekly Structure Suggests
We had:
Impulse down
Small weekly bodies
Volume tapering
Momentum cooling
That is not reversal confirmation.
That is compression.
The market is deciding whether:
• 60k is accumulation
or
• 60k is just a pause before continuation
And the second test of 60k will be decisive.
Markets rarely respect levels infinitely.
The more you tap a floor, the thinner it gets.
Probability Read
As long as weekly closes stay below 73.5k:
Rallies are suspect.
Weekly acceptance above 73.5k shifts bias toward 80k retest.
Weekly close below 60k shifts bias toward 49k fast.
There is no middle narrative.
Only structure.
This is the part where most traders lose money.
They trade opinions instead of probabilities.
How I’m Approaching This Week
Neutral inside 60–73.5k.
No hero trades.
No ego.
If we push toward 73.5k:
I watch for rejection.
If we break below 66k:
I prepare for 60k retest.
If 60k breaks:
I don’t try to catch knives.
I look at 48k calmly.
Because capital preservation > ego.
Always.
DCA Zone Reality
Everyone says they’ll DCA.
Few actually structure it properly.
DCA without dry powder discipline is how you end up:
• Fully allocated at 55k
• Watching price hit 30k
• Emotionally frozen
If you’re planning to accumulate, understand this:
The real DCA zone is wide.
Scale in layers.
Not emotions.
This is where free-only traders get wrecked.
Because you’re reacting to headlines instead of planning in advance.
Weekly Sentiment Check
Twitter is already talking bottom.
That alone should make you cautious.
True bottoms form when:
• Engagement dies
• Influencers disappear
• Nobody wants to hear about crypto
Right now?
People are still debating floors.
That’s not capitulation.
That’s bargaining.
Summary
Weekly bias: Defensive until 73.5k flips.
Critical level: 60k.
Break 60k, acceleration risk.
Reclaim 73.5k, relief continuation toward 80k.
Everything else is chop.
This is a patience week.
The move will come.
Your job is simple:
Have capital when it does.
Important Announcement – Paid Newsletter Launching March 2
Now let me be blunt.
Free-only readers are under-equipped.
Not because you’re not smart.
Because you’re not seeing the full playbook.
Starting March 2, the Victor Newsletter becomes partially paid.
Free readers will get roughly 30 percent.
The real edge lives in the other 70 percent.
Inside the paid version, I’ll be breaking down:
• Detailed scenario trees with probability weighting
• Exact invalidation levels and position sizing logic
• Capital allocation frameworks
• DCA ladder structures with predefined percentages
• Options overlays and hedge considerations
• Macro correlation reads with DXY, liquidity, and risk assets
• Psychological discipline frameworks for volatile phases
This is not hopium.
This is structure.
If you want to trade like an adult, you need:
Edge
Risk management
Execution discipline
And that requires depth.
Free content informs you.
Paid content equips you.
There’s a difference.
Early Access
If you want to stay on the waitlist and get the first two weeks free:
Join the free room here:
👉 https://whop.com/digital-vault-free
You’ll be first to access the paid rollout with a special rate.
If you already know you want the full stack, paid newsletter plus Discord breakdowns, live levels, and deeper execution analysis:
Free premium newsletter for you.
After March 2, pricing adjusts.
I’m building this for serious traders.
Not tourists.
This cycle will not reward guesswork.
It will reward structure, patience, and capital control.
Decide which side you want to be on.
See you inside.
Victor
