Good morning.

Two charts worth your full attention this week.

BTC bounced back toward the 78k to 79k zone. Looks strong on the surface. But zoom in and you'll see that this is the third time price has attempted to hold at this level. Third attempt at the same resistance has a name. Triple top.

ETH bounced from last week's confirmed H&S breakdown low. But the bounce topped out lower than the previous one. Which topped out lower than the one before that. Lower highs. Confirmed bearish structure.

Both charts look like recovery attempts. Both charts are telling a more complicated story underneath.

Let me walk you through each one honestly.

Pull up the BTC daily chart and count the peaks in the 78.3k to 79.5k zone.

One. Two. Three.

That's a triple top formation in progress. Three separate attempts to push above the same resistance level. Each one has failed to close and hold convincingly above it.

Triple tops are reversal patterns. They tell you that sellers are consistently showing up at the same price level and absorbing every attempt buyers make to push through. After two failures at the same level, a third attempt carries lower probability of success than the first two did.

That doesn't mean the third attempt automatically fails. It means I require more evidence of a genuine breakout before I commit capital.

Currently price is pushing at 80k and we need daily close to count it to invalidate triple top, discussed below.

What would invalidate the triple top:

A daily close above 79.5k with strong volume followed by a hold above that level the next day. That close would tell me buyers have finally overwhelmed the sellers at this resistance cluster and the pattern has failed. In that scenario the next targets are 80k to 84k.

What would confirm the triple top:

A daily close back below 75,047, which is the neckline equivalent for this pattern. Below 75,047 and the triple top becomes a confirmed reversal signal with significant downside implications.

The bigger picture I can't ignore:

Even if BTC invalidates the triple top and pushes to 80k to 84k, that is not the level that ends the macro downtrend. For the macro downtrend from the all-time high to be formally invalidated, BTC needs a confirmed close above 98k. That's a long way from 78.3k. A move to 84k would be constructive. It would not change the macro picture.

That distinction matters for how I size positions and how long I hold them.

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Last week ETH confirmed the head and shoulders pattern I had been tracking. The neckline at 2,270 broke. I called a measured move target of approximately 2,073.

This week ETH bounced from the breakdown lows near 2,260 back to 2,311.

On the surface that looks like recovery. In context it's a lower high.

The head formed at 2,467. The previous bounce after the H&S breakdown topped near 2,380. This current bounce is at 2,311. Each successive bounce is peaking at a lower level than the one before.

Lower highs is the textbook definition of a downtrend. ETH is making lower highs on every bounce. That structure does not change until ETH produces a higher high. The first step toward that would be a close above 2,404, then above 2,467. Even those closes would not change the macro picture.

For ETH's macro downtrend to be formally invalidated, a confirmed close above 3.6k is required. That's the level I'm watching on the long-term timeframe.

Between here and there, 2,270 is still the neckline I'm watching as the immediate pivot. ETH is currently above it at 2,311. If this bounce fails and ETH loses 2,270 again on a daily close, the measured move toward 2,073 resumes with confirmation.

I want to be direct about something this week.

A lot of analysis right now is focused on short-term bounces and describing them as recoveries. BTC at 78k sounds bullish compared to the 65k lows. ETH at 2,311 sounds better than 2,260.

But both assets remain inside their macro downtrends.

BTC needs 98k to invalidate the macro downtrend. Not 80k. Not 84k. 98k on a confirmed close.

ETH needs 3.6k to invalidate the macro downtrend. Not 2.4k. Not 2.6k. 3.6k on a confirmed close.

Everything below those levels is a bounce inside a downtrend until proven otherwise. The bounces can be traded. I don't ignore them. But I'm not treating them as structural recoveries until the structure actually changes.

My overall stance: still watching. Still patient. The BTC triple top is the key development this week. Whether it confirms or invalidates will tell me a great deal about the next four to six weeks.

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Victor