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BTC spot at 62.5k. ETH spot at 1.75k. Both still held, and this week both charts are doing the exact thing that actually matters, pushing directly into the resistance levels I have been watching for weeks rather than drifting around below them.
BTC is trading right around 65.2k, up a bit over 4% from entry. ETH is trading near 1938, up close to 11% from entry. ETH continues to be the stronger of the two, and this week it has done something specific worth flagging. It has cleared the zone I flagged a couple of issues back as the area where I sold a call against part of my position, and it is now pressing into the next resistance level above that.
BTC first.
Price is sitting almost exactly on the resistance shelf I have been watching for a few weeks now. This is not a drift toward the level from a distance. This is a direct test, happening right now. I do not have the answer yet on which way this resolves. What I can say is that this is the actual moment the last several weeks of consolidation have been building toward, not another quiet week inside the same range.
Weeks of sideways chop right underneath a level are usually not wasted time even though they feel that way while they are happening. They build up positioning on both sides of the level, which is part of why the eventual resolution tends to carry more weight than a level that gets tested once and moves on immediately. This is that kind of setup. Several weeks of consolidation directly below the same shelf, now finally being tested in earnest.
ETH is the more developed story.
It pushed through the call zone I described in an earlier issue and is now testing resistance just above where it currently sits. This puts my existing options position squarely in play. I sold that call expecting some possibility of exactly this outcome, and now I have to make a real decision about how to manage it rather than just watching from a distance.
This week I am also adding two new pieces to how I read the market, because price levels alone do not tell the whole story right now.
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The first is funding rates across major exchanges.
This measures how much leveraged longs are paying leveraged shorts, or the other way around, to keep positions open. Right now funding across both BTC and ETH is sitting in a modest, mostly positive range across the exchanges I track, nothing that looks like the kind of overheated, euphoric funding you typically see near a genuine local top. One exchange is showing a slightly elevated reading on ETH specifically, worth keeping an eye on, but the broader picture is calm rather than crowded.
That matters because a move into resistance backed by calm funding is a healthier setup than the same move backed by funding that is already stretched. Stretched funding at resistance tends to mean the move is running on leverage rather than genuine demand, which makes it more fragile. What I am seeing right now does not have that fragile quality yet.
The second new piece is the liquidation heatmap, which shows where large clusters of leveraged positions would get forced to close if price reaches certain levels.
Both BTC and ETH currently show meaningful liquidation clusters sitting just above current price, with additional clusters sitting below as well. Clusters above price matter because they represent short positions that would get forced to buy if price reaches them, which can act as fuel for a move higher once it gets going. Clusters below matter as the flip side, showing where a drop could accelerate if support gives way.
Having real liquidity sitting just overhead on both charts, at the same time both are testing key resistance, at the same time funding stays calm rather than stretched, is a combination worth taking seriously. It does not guarantee a breakout. It does describe a setup where a breakout, if it happens, would have real fuel behind it rather than fizzling out on thin follow through.
This is a genuinely different way of reading a chart than levels alone provide, and it is why I am adding it into this newsletter going forward rather than treating it as a one off. Price levels tell me where a market has reacted before. Liquidation clusters tell me where forced buying or selling is actually sitting right now, waiting to be triggered. Combining the two gives a more complete picture of why a level might hold or break than either one gives on its own.
Where this leaves the plan for the week.
I am not adding to either starter position purely on this data. What I am doing is paying much closer attention to both resistance levels than I have in recent weeks, since both are being tested directly rather than approached from a distance. On the ETH options side, I am actively deciding how to handle the call I already have sold, now that price is testing the exact zone that trade was built around.
This is the kind of week where patience and attention matter more than action. The setup is interesting. It is not yet resolved. I would rather watch both levels actually break or hold before committing more capital than get ahead of a test that has not finished playing out.
That's where I'll stop.
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This week I break down the precise BTC and ETH levels I'm watching, my options positioning, the funding data across every major exchange, liquidation clusters that could trigger the next move, and my full trading plan if resistance breaks or rejects.
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