Victor's Monday Morning Brief

Monday's here.

We are nearer to the end than the start.

Don't let any excuses get into the way.

Heres my take on price action this week.

Let's get straight to it.

1. Bitcoin (BTC)  $114,371

Support: $112,200 – $113,000
Resistance: $114,600 – $115,000

Price is approaching resistance near $115k, rejected twice in the past few sessions. Support just below at $113k has held firm during pullbacks, carving a tight consolidation. A weekly close above $115k with volume could trigger a move toward $118k+. If support gives way, we risk a drop to $110k.

My take
This is a classic stake-out box. I’m only paying attention if BTC prints above $115k with conviction or breaks below $113k. I’m watching how price interacts with this ceiling. A breakout sets the tone. A fail and I pivot to defensive posture.

2. Ethereum (ETH) around $3,516

Support: $3,370 – $3,400
Resistance: $3,510 – $3,550

ETH has pushed into a resistance zone at $3,550 after a solid rally from $3,400. The price action sits in an ascending triangle, suggesting potential buildup. If buyers control volume and the candle closes above $3,550, I expect a move toward $3,650 and then $3,750. On the downside, a break below $3,370, especially with volume, opens vulnerability down to $3,300.

My take
ETH is flexing strength. That matters more than BTC direction. I’m watching for the breakout filter, not just price motivation, but volume to confirm. That tells me capital is rotating into ETH. A breakout with mixed volume is weak; a breakout with strong volume signals real rotation.

3. ETH/BTC Ratio

The ETH/BTC ratio has gained around 8% in the past month, nearing the upper boundary of an ascending wedge. If ETH begins to outperform Bitcoin in that pattern, and breaks out above the wedge with momentum, it likely signals capital shifting into ETH and broader alt narratives. A breakout above prior highs signals ETH grabbing share.

My take
This ratio signals capital rotation. If ETH/BTC breaks higher, I lean into ETH and major narrative alts. If it fails, that rotation stalls and we stay conservative.

4. DXY (US Dollar Index) around 98.8

Dollar index is compressing under resistance near 99.2, holding a range between 98.4 and 99.2. Any break above 99.2 typically pressures risk assets; a drop toward 98.0 gives crypto room to breathe.

My take
Dollar strength is an external threat to crypto breakout attempts. I treat DXY moves as a macro barometer,if it breaks lower, that reinforces risk-on bias. If higher, risk becomes cautious.

5. S&P 500 (SPX) around 6,240

S&P futures are rounding recent highs, trading between 6,210 and 6,260. Weakness below 6,200 would suggest cracks in risk sentiment. A sustainable break above 6,260 opens toward 6,300–6,350.

My take
SPX strength supports flow into crypto. If it breaks lower while DXY rises, that suggests risk-off. I monitor this as a proxy for broader appetite.

6. TOTAL3/ETH (Altcoin Market Cap excl BTC & ETH)

TOTAL3 index has shown about 1–2% weekly gains, just below long-term resistance. ETH dominance around 11.4–11.8% with TOTAL3 moving sideways. A breakout of TOTAL3 signals broader alt accumulation beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

My take
TOTAL3 movement is the purist indicator for altseason breadth. When it breaks above consolidation, that’s your cue to lean into selected alts, not scatter. ETH leading TOTAL3 signals rotation into midcaps too.

Altseason Forward Scan

Altseason begins with quiet rotation, no parabolic pumps. First, you see BTC dominance bottoming while ETH dominance climbs. That permits a broader capital shift. Psychic reaction lags. Emotional trades follow retail.

My take
You need conviction now, not emotion. If you wait for the green candle party, you’ll be buying late and selling early. The edge comes from studying rotation, watch BTC.D vs ETH.D, TOTAL3 structure, and volume trends, not guessing momentum.

Tactical Summary for This Week

• BTC: Watch breakout above $115k or breakdown below $113k

• ETH: Supply zone at $3,550. Hold $3,400 or risk retest

• ETH/BTC: Ratio breakout means broader rip for ETH and alts

• TOTAL3/ETH: Breach of consolidation signals midcap rotation

• DXY & SPX: Macro confirmations or rejections to frame risk context

What you're missing:

If you’re not yet part of the premium group, here’s what you’re missing:

• Live alerts when ETH/BTC breaks pivot ratios

• Exact BTC.D and ETH.D thresholds I’m tracking

• My selective alt list based on narrative, volume, and structure

• Real-time Discord commentary as key zones resolve

• Exit frameworks so you don’t get bag holding after peak rotation

Altseason is quietly brewing. Retail isn’t in yet. If you wait, the boat leaves without you.

👉 Join 9‑5 Traders Premium now
This is when preparation shows. Don’t watch from the sidelines.

I’ll be watching the same structure until one of these zones breaks.

See you in Discord.

- Victor