Last week I had two macro headwinds active.

Oil above 100. Yields near 4%.

This week the picture has shifted.

Oil fell back below 100 to 98. Gold reversed sharply from 4,518 to 4,760. Silver broke above the 84 resistance I had been flagging and is now at 86. SPX extended to new ATHs at 7,430.

Four charts moving in the same constructive direction in a single week is not noise. Something changed in the macro environment.

Let me walk through each one and tell you what I think is driving it.

Before getting into the individual charts, the macro context matters.

Since a US-Iran conflict broke out in late February, commodity markets had been running a significant war premium. Oil above 100. Gold under pressure from a stronger dollar. Silver crashing as margin calls hit leveraged traders. The fear trade was driving everything.

Over the past week, signals suggest that fear premium is beginning to unwind. The conflict narrative is showing early signs of de-escalation. When geopolitical fear eases, the specific trades that were driven by it begin to reverse. Oil falls. Gold and silver find footing. Equities push higher.

That's the macro story behind this week's moves. Not a fundamental change in the long-term picture. A reduction in the near-term fear premium.

Two weeks ago I said oil above 100 was the most bearish macro outcome I was tracking. Oil at 105 was creating inflationary pressure, keeping the Fed hawkish, and pressuring risk assets.

Oil is now at 98. Back below 100. Back below the 94.59 level I was watching as the dividing line.

This is the most constructive single development across these four charts this week.

Oil below 100 removes the inflation pressure signal. It gives the Fed more room. It eases the margin squeeze on corporate earnings. And it removes one of the two primary headwinds I had flagged in last week's analysis.

The key level I'm watching on the downside: 80.529 is the next significant support. A continued decline toward that level would upgrade the macro read further.

On the upside: 110 is the next resistance. If oil reverses and reclaims 100 on a daily close, the headwind returns. For now, below 100 is the constructive read.

Gold was at 4,518 last week. Now at 4,760. That's a 240 point recovery in a single week.

The same war premium that drove oil higher and gold lower as the dollar strengthened is now unwinding. With oil pulling back below 100, dollar strength eases, and gold finds room to recover.

The 4,105 critical support I had been tracking as the re-entry level was never tested. Gold found a floor above it and reversed. That's actually a constructive development for the longer-term gold thesis. The major support held without being tested.

What I'm watching now: 5,410 is the first meaningful resistance above current price. Above that, 5,611 is the prior high. For gold to resume the longer-term bull thesis, it needs to build a base above current levels and push back toward 5,000 on a weekly closing basis.

The re-entry framework I had built around the 4,105 touch is now on hold. Gold didn't give me that entry. The alternative setup is a weekly close above 5,000 that confirms the base has formed. I'm watching for that rather than chasing the current bounce.

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Silver is the most dramatic move of the four charts this week.

It was at 72 last week, pressing against the 69.806 floor from above. I said watch for either a rejection candle at 69.806 or a break below it. The rejection came. And the bounce has been extraordinary.

Silver has moved from near 70 all the way to 86 in a matter of days. It has now broken above the 84.131 resistance level I had been flagging for weeks as the ceiling on any bounce.

The structural case for silver remains intact. This is the sixth consecutive year of global silver supply deficit. Industrial demand from solar panels, EVs, and data centres is consuming silver permanently. Supply cannot keep up because most silver is mined as a by-product of copper and zinc.

With oil falling below 100, the dollar softening, and the geopolitical fear premium unwinding, silver is recovering toward levels that reflect its structural fundamentals rather than near-term panic selling.

92 is the next resistance above. A close above 92 would be a significant bullish development.

SPX at 7,430 is the sixth consecutive week of new ATH territory. The recovery from the 6,354 lows has been extraordinary.

7,043 is still the structural support below, now 387 points away. Each week that passes with SPX above 7,043 and oil below 100 reduces the near-term risk to the equity recovery.

The volume divergence I've been flagging continues. Six consecutive weeks of price at new highs without proportional volume expansion. The concern hasn't gone away. But the macro headwinds that I said would show up in Q2 earnings are now facing a different input: oil at 98 instead of 105. That changes the margin pressure calculation modestly.

7,043 remains the level I'm watching as the floor. A close below it would be the first warning that the ATH extension is exhausting.

Last week: Two active headwinds (oil above 100, yields near 4%).

This week: Oil below 100 is easing. Gold and silver recovering as the war premium unwinds. SPX extended further.

The macro read has shifted from cautiously bearish to cautiously neutral. The specific headwinds I was tracking are loosening. The longer-term structural concerns about valuations and earnings haven't changed.

For crypto, easing macro headwinds remove one of the barriers I flagged for deployment. But as I said Monday, the on-chain signals still tell me the real BTC bottom hasn't formed. The macro improving doesn't override the on-chain framework.

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Victor