The market is sitting in a very interesting place this Tuesday.

The S&P 500 is basically back near record territory, my stock entries are starting to work, the options account has already hit its August target, and tomorrow we get the macro number that could decide whether this rally gets another leg higher or finally gets tested.

CPI.

Before I get into tomorrow, look at where the S&P is today.

S&P futures are trading around 7,786, after the cash S&P closed Monday around 7,753. US futures are modestly positive this morning, but markets are clearly waiting for Wednesday's inflation report before making a much larger commitment.

I have three levels marked on the chart:

7,648

7,544

7,044

The first thing that stands out is how quickly buyers reclaimed the recent weakness.

We had a fairly violent drop toward 7,350, yet instead of continuing lower, the market reversed and pushed straight through 7,544 and 7,648.

Now we are above both.

That means those old resistance areas become the first places I want to see buyers defend if we pull back.

This is why I am not trying to short the S&P simply because it looks expensive.

Expensive markets can stay expensive for much longer than people expect.

And fundamentally, corporate America is still delivering.

Through last week, roughly 85% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings had beaten analyst expectations, considerably above the historical average.

So I have two competing signals.

Valuations and index levels tell me not to become careless.

But price action and earnings tell me not to fight the trend prematurely.

Right now, price wins.

July CPI arrives Wednesday at 8:30am ET, followed by PPI Thursday.

This matters even more after Friday's employment report.

US nonfarm payrolls actually declined by around 23k in July, while unemployment remained around 4.1%.

That changed the macro equation.

The Fed now has evidence that the labour market is weakening.

But the Fed cannot respond aggressively if inflation remains too high.

The Fed left rates at 3.5% to 3.75% in July, so the market is now trying to work out what comes next heading into the September meeting.

This gives us three very simple scenarios.

Soft CPI plus weak employment would be supportive for risk assets.

Hot CPI plus weak employment would be much more uncomfortable because that starts creating a stagflation problem.

CPI roughly in line probably leaves the market trading primarily off earnings and technicals.

That is why I am not making a major directional call before Wednesday.

Oil.

Brent has moved back toward roughly 88 as uncertainty around US-Iran negotiations continues.

That matters because sustained higher energy prices eventually feed back into inflation.

So even if tomorrow's CPI is fine, I am watching whether oil stays elevated.

The market wants the perfect combination:

Slower employment.

Cooling inflation.

Stable consumption.

Healthy earnings.

That is the soft-landing setup.

We already have two parts of it.

Tomorrow tells us more about the third.

This has actually become one of the more interesting parts of the portfolio.

I posted these entries live in Discord.

Not after they moved.

Before.

Entry 114

Current price around 139.

That is roughly +22%.

This was probably the most uncomfortable entry of the group.

SPCX had collapsed after IPO and then had a massive block of insider shares become eligible for sale.

Instead of collapsing when the unlock actually happened, the stock absorbed it.

That was what interested me.

Since the post-IPO low, SPCX has now rebounded sharply and reclaimed its 135 IPO price. The next obvious area on my chart is around 150.

This is a good example of why I care about reaction more than headlines.

Everyone knew the unlock was huge.

The important information was what price did after the selling became possible.

Entry 64

Current around 67.

Roughly +5%.

This one has not exploded higher yet, but that was never the reason I bought it.

Circle now has final regulatory approval to establish a US national trust bank, strengthening its institutional infrastructure around USDC.

Technically, I want 59 to continue holding.

The longer CRCL stabilises above that area, the more constructive I become.

Entry 151

Current around 149.

Basically flat, roughly -1% to -2%.

This is exactly why I build baskets instead of expecting every position to move immediately.

Some trades move first.

Some take weeks.

I am comfortable allowing the thesis time to develop while the structure holds.

Entry 77

Current around 83.

Roughly +7%.

Gold has started moving again as geopolitical risk remains elevated. Spot gold was also firmer Tuesday as markets watched both inflation and developments in the Middle East.

Entry 55

Current around 59.

Roughly +8%.

Same idea.

I wanted exposure after the correction rather than chasing the previous vertical rally.

That patience is now being rewarded.

This is the part I think people underestimate.

I started the options challenge with roughly 2k.

Account now around 2.23k.

That puts the account roughly 11% up overall.

And my target for August was only 3%.

Target already hit.

Yesterday I posted the trade live in Discord:

Sell ETH 25 Sep 2200 call

5 contracts

The short call is currently around +14%, approximately 32 profit at the latest mark.

This is exactly what I want from the options side.

I am not trying to double the account every month.

I want repeatable income while waiting for larger spot opportunities.

Stocks working.

Options collecting premium.

And cash still available when better setups appear.

That is the structure.

I am bullish on the current S&P momentum, but I am not blindly bullish.

Above roughly 7,648, the immediate structure remains constructive.

Losing that would make me watch 7,544.

A deeper break would tell me something has changed.

Tomorrow's CPI is therefore coming at exactly the right moment.

The market is near the highs.

Employment has weakened.

Oil has risen.

The Fed is waiting.

And my positions have already started moving.

I do not need to predict the CPI print.

I need to know what I will do after the market tells me what the print means.

That distinction matters.

Premium members saw the actual entries live in Discord.

SPCX at 114, now around 139.

CRCL at 64.

COIN at 151.

IAU at 77, now around 83.

SLV around 55, now around 59.

And yesterday's ETH 2200 short call was posted live before it moved into profit.

The 2k options challenge is already around +11% overall, with my 3% August target already hit.

The Premium issue below has my exact S&P levels, CPI bull/base/bear scenarios, what would invalidate each stock setup, where I would add, where I would stop adding, and how I am managing the options account from here.

If you are reading the entries only after they have already moved, you are seeing the least valuable part of the process.

The planning happens before the move.

www.whop.com/digitalvault1

Victor