Last week I told you about two macro developments I was watching.

SPX breaking above 7,047. Oil breaking below 87.63.

Both were constructive. Both pointed toward a risk-on environment developing.

This week SPX has continued higher. That part held.

But oil has reversed. Hard.

It went from 86.29 last week all the way back to 96.97 this week. It's now back above both 87.63 and 94.59, the two support levels I flagged as the dividing line between deflationary tailwind and inflationary headwind.

That reversal matters. And I want to be honest with you about what it means for the macro picture.

SPX has added another 60+ points from last week's 7,157. The recovery from the 6,354 lows has been one of the most aggressive moves I've seen on this chart.

7,047 is now firmly below current price and has been acting as support on any intraday weakness. The level has held. That's constructive.

But the volume concern I raised last week has not gone away. Price continues to push higher while volume has not expanded proportionally to the move. That divergence is still present at 7,220.

The key question this week is whether SPX can maintain this pace of gains. Vertical moves without volume eventually stall. The question is always when, not if.

What I'm watching: 7,047 remains the critical support below. As long as SPX holds above it on daily closes, the uptrend is intact. A daily close back below 7,047 with meaningful selling volume would be the first warning that the move is exhausting.

Above current price, there is limited historical resistance given that we're in ATH territory. The chart is in price discovery mode above 7,200.

Long term bias - still bearish

This is the most important development across these four charts this week.

Last week oil was at 86.29. Below 87.63. Below 94.59. I called it a deflationary signal and a tailwind for risk assets. That reading was valid at the time.

This week oil has reclaimed both of those levels. 87.63 is now back below current price. 94.59 is back below current price. Oil at 96.97 is pressing toward the 100 level.

Why does this matter for everything else?

Oil above 100 is not a neutral number. It feeds into consumer price data, it pressures corporate margins, and it gives the Federal Reserve reason to stay hawkish. That combination is not friendly for sustained equity gains or for crypto recovery.

The key level I'm watching now is 100 on the upside. If oil closes above 100 and holds there, the deflationary thesis from last week is fully reversed and I need to reassess the macro backdrop significantly.

94.59 is the support I'd want to see oil pull back below to re-establish the constructive picture from last week. Until that happens, oil is a headwind I'm monitoring rather than a tailwind I'm relying on.

Gold has continued its post-blow-off correction. Last week it was at 4,826. This week 4,693. The drift lower is gradual but consistent.

The level that matters most is 4,105. That's the major support I've been flagging as the floor below the correction. Gold is now 588 points above it.

That sounds like plenty of room. But gold has been losing ground steadily since the 5,611 high. If that pace continues, 4,105 becomes a realistic test within the next few weeks.

The 4,105 level has held before. A touch and rejection from 4,105 would be the base formation signal I need to consider a re-entry. But I'm not buying a drifting asset on the way down. I wait for the level and the rejection candle.

Current read: Neutral to cautious. The correction is still in progress. Not re-entering gold until 4,105 is tested and holds.

Silver has barely moved from last week's 79.856. Current price at 75.981 is sitting in the same zone between 69.806 support and 84.131 resistance.

The chart is showing continued indecision post blow-off. Silver spent weeks near the 120 level before crashing. These kinds of extreme moves take time to fully digest. The market is still figuring out the right price for silver in a post-fear environment.

My read hasn't changed. I'm not buying silver at 75.981. The optimal re-entry zone I've had marked for weeks is 54.393. We're 21 points above that. Either I missed the best entry or silver hasn't finished correcting.

Given the oil reversal this week and the renewed inflation concern that creates, silver could actually bounce from here if the commodity fear trade reignites. But I'm not positioning for that until I see a confirmed close above 84.131 with strong volume.

Last week I had two constructive macro signals: SPX above 7,047 and oil below 87.63.

This week the scorecard looks different.

SPX is still constructive. It's extended the gain and 7,047 is holding as support.

Oil has reversed the signal. Back above 87.63 and 94.59, approaching 100.

Gold is drifting lower, not building a base.

Silver is going nowhere.

The net read: cautiously watching. SPX is still in an uptrend. But oil reversing the deflationary signal is a meaningful change that I cannot ignore. The macro backdrop is more mixed this week than it was last week.

I'm not making dramatic changes to my positioning based on one week of oil movement. But I'm watching the 100 level on oil very closely. That's the line that tells me whether this is a temporary bounce or a full reversal of the commodity unwind.

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Victor