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Let me take you through four macro charts this morning. All four are at important junctures. And taken together they paint a picture that is more nuanced than it was a few weeks ago.
Some things have changed. Some things haven't. Let me walk through each one.
SPX - 7587. Back Near the Highs. But Still Not Clean.
SPX is at 7587 this morning. Near the upper end of the range it has been trading in over recent weeks.
The setup at the highs has not changed structurally. We had a bearish engulfing candle at the previous high near 7647. Price pulled back, found buyers, and is now back near those highs. This is the moment that defines the next move.
If SPX can close a daily candle above 7647 and hold above it with follow-through volume, the short-term bearish case weakens and we need to reassess. That would be an important development.
If SPX once again fails to close above 7647 and begins rolling over from this level for the second time, the double top structure becomes confirmed. That's the bearish scenario and the one I'm watching most closely.
7544 is the first support below current price. That level has been both support and resistance multiple times. A daily close below 7544 would be the first technical warning that the second rejection is playing out.
7043 is the level I've been referencing for weeks as the first real test of whether this is a normal pullback or something more structural. Below that 6525 and 6354 are the deeper supports. And the green accumulation zone that sits between 6000 and 6200 is the macro reference for where institutional buyers have historically stepped in on this chart.
The honest read: SPX is at a decision point. The next few sessions will tell us whether the highs break cleanly or whether the second rejection begins.
Gold - 4145. The Bounce Above 4105. Something Changed.
This is the most interesting chart of the week.
Gold is at 4145. Two weeks ago it was breaking below 4105 and approaching the 3883 support with momentum. I flagged that 4105 was the critical level and that losing it on a daily close would open the door to 3883.
Price briefly broke below 4105, found buyers, and has recovered back above it. That is a meaningful development. When a support level breaks, gets tested from below, and then price recovers above it, that failed breakdown can often lead to a sharp move in the opposite direction. The sellers who were pressing below 4105 have been squeezed out. The buyers who stepped in around 3883 to 4000 are now in profit.
Gold at 4145 and holding above 4105 is the first sign in weeks that the post-parabolic correction may be finding a base. I'm not calling a reversal. But the character of the price action has shifted.
The levels above that now matter as resistance are 5410 and 5611. Those are the previous highs and will be relevant only if the recovery continues to build. For now the focus is on whether 4105 holds as support going into this week.
The downside remains defined. Below 4105 the setup deteriorates. Below 3883 the DCA zone I've been tracking opens up. But the immediate read is more constructive than it has been for some time.
Sound familiar?
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Silver - 61. The Bounce From the Floor.
Silver is at 61. A week ago it was approaching the 54 level that I had been flagging as the critical support. Price tested near that zone and bounced. Currently sitting at 61 and recovering.
This is similar to gold's situation. The feared break of 54 didn't happen on a sustained basis. Price found buyers before it could close below that level convincingly. And the recovery from the lows to 61 is a meaningful 12 to 13% move.
Above current price, 69 is the first resistance worth noting. That was the support level that broke on the way down and will now act as a ceiling. Getting above 69 on a daily close would be the first sign that silver is genuinely recovering rather than just bouncing from a support test.
Below, 54 remains the key level. A return toward 54 and a failure to hold it on a weekly close would change the picture significantly. For now the bounce is real.
Oil - 68. Below 80. Watching For Stabilisation.
Oil at 68 continues to trade below the 80 level that had been the floor through the mid-cycle period. The decline from 119 to current levels has been severe and there's been no convincing sign of a bottom forming yet.
The price action in oil is still the most bearish of the four charts on this page. While gold and silver are showing signs of stabilisation, oil is not yet showing the same.
What oil does from here matters for the macro picture. If oil stabilises and starts recovering from the mid-60s, that would be a signal that the demand concerns being priced into the market are easing. If oil continues lower toward 60 and below, the macro growth concern narrative continues to strengthen.
For now oil is the chart to watch as a leading indicator for the broader risk picture.
The combined read
Gold bouncing above 4105. Silver recovering from near 54. SPX at the highs facing a key test. Oil still in a declining structure below 80.
The gold and silver stabilisation is a new development that wasn't present two weeks ago. It shifts the overall macro picture slightly from maximum bearish to cautiously observing. The SPX test of the highs this week will tell us a lot about whether equities follow the same stabilisation or whether the double top structure plays out.
I'm watching all four closely. Updates as they develop.
Victor
