Before I start, just want to let you know my account got compromised and subsequently got banned without reasons.

So just like that, digitalvault25 account handle, one which let you know me, is gone.

But I will continue a new one, and if you liked my content so far, I’m here - https://www.threads.com/@digitalvault.26

I have been burnt to almost zero in crypto and got it back, and this account deletion ain’t gonna deter me from creating more content.

So let’s jump back.

A few weeks ago I flagged a specific scenario.

Oil breaking above 100 and holding. I called it the most bearish macro outcome for risk assets.

Oil is at 105 today. It's been above 100 for multiple daily closes now.

That scenario is no longer hypothetical. It's the current reality.

At the same time the US 2-year Treasury yield is bouncing back toward 4%. Gold is accelerating lower. Silver is approaching a critical support floor.

Four of the five macro charts I'm looking at this morning are telling me the same thing. The easy macro environment that was supporting risk assets a few weeks ago has become meaningfully more complicated.

Let me walk you through each one.

Three weeks ago oil was at 86. I called that level a deflationary tailwind and upgraded my macro read to constructive.

Two weeks ago oil bounced back to 97. I flagged it as a reversal of that positive signal.

Today oil is at 105. Multiple daily closes above 100.

This is the scenario that changes the macro picture most significantly of anything I track.

Oil above 100 does three things simultaneously. It feeds into consumer price data, giving the Fed less room to cut rates. It squeezes corporate profit margins, creating headwinds for earnings and equity valuations. And it drains consumer spending power, which slows the economy broadly.

None of those three things are friendly for sustained risk asset gains. And all three are happening at once right now.

The level I'm watching on oil for any reversal of this read: 94.59. A confirmed daily close back below 94.59 would tell me the move above 100 was not a sustained trend change and the deflationary story can resume. Until that happens, oil is the primary macro headwind I'm tracking.

The 2-year Treasury yield is the market's most direct expression of what it expects the Federal Reserve to do with interest rates over the next two years.

When the 2-year yield falls, the market is pricing in rate cuts. That's a risk-on signal.

When the 2-year yield rises, the market is pricing out those cuts. That's a risk-off signal.

The 2-year yield bottomed near 3.4% earlier this year and has now bounced back to 3.962%, sitting just below 4%.

Rising short-term yields combined with oil above 100 is a specific macro combination that creates pressure on risk assets in two directions simultaneously. Oil is pushing inflation higher. Rising yields reflect the market's expectation that the Fed will need to stay hawkish rather than cutting rates to support growth.

For context, this is the exact macro combination that was present during the most difficult periods for crypto and equities over the past two years.

I'm watching 4% on the 2-year yield as the next significant level. A daily close above 4% with momentum would signal that the rate cut narrative is being further priced out. Below 3.6% would tell me the market is re-pricing rate cuts back in.

Gold was at 4,826 three weeks ago. At 4,693 two weeks ago. At 4,518 today.

The drift has become an acceleration. Gold is losing approximately 175 to 180 points per week now.

The critical support I've been flagging for months is 4,105. We were 588 points away from it three weeks ago. Today we're 413 points away.

At the current pace of decline, 4,105 is a matter of weeks, not months.

The relationship between gold's decline and oil's rise is worth noting. Both were part of the commodity fear trade that drove prices to extreme levels earlier this year. As that fear trade unwinds, gold falls. But oil is not unwinding. Oil is pushing higher. That divergence within commodities tells me the macro narrative is more complex than a simple "fear is over" story.

What I'm watching: 4,105 is the base formation level I've been waiting for. A touch and rejection from that level is the re-entry signal for gold. A break below it changes the entire picture for the gold macro thesis.

Silver has fallen from 75.981 last week to 72.474 today. It's now sitting 2.67 points above the 69.806 support level that I've been watching as the first major floor below the blow-off top correction.

69.806 is going to be tested soon. The question is whether it holds or gives way.

A high-volume rejection candle at 69.806 would be a short-term positive for silver. It doesn't change my optimal re-entry thesis which still targets 54.393, but a bounce from 69.806 would at least tell me the support level is structurally valid.

A daily close below 69.806 with meaningful selling volume would accelerate the move toward 54.393. In that scenario the entire silver correction has more to run.

SPX pulled back slightly from last week's 7,261 ATH to 7,232 today. The move is marginal. The level that matters, 7,043, is still 189 points below current price.

But here's what I'm watching about SPX in this macro context.

SPX has been holding at ATH territory while oil moves above 100 and yields rise toward 4%. Those two macro headwinds have not yet shown up in the equity price. That's either because the market is looking through the headwinds, or because the headwinds have not been present long enough to affect earnings and economic data yet.

The second interpretation is the more relevant one for traders. Oil above 100 and rising yields take time to show up in corporate results. The Q2 earnings season will be the first real test. If oil stays above 100 and yields stay near 4% through Q2, the earnings reports will show margin compression and the equity market will have to price that in.

7,043 is still the level I'm watching as the SPX floor. As long as it holds, the uptrend is technically intact. But I'm watching the macro backdrop with increasing caution.

Oil above 100. Yields rising toward 4%. Gold accelerating lower. Silver approaching a floor. SPX holding but facing building headwinds.

This is a materially more complicated macro environment than it was two weeks ago. The constructive read I had when oil was at 86 and yields were falling is no longer appropriate.

My overall macro read: cautiously bearish. Not panicking. But not dismissing what the charts are telling me.

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Victor