Four macro charts this week with a notably different read compared to previous weeks. Let me give you the complete picture with the full trendline and level context.
SPX - 7587. Double Top at the Highs. Critical Session Ahead.
The SPX daily chart has a pattern forming at the highs that I want to spend time on because it defines the week.
The red curved lines drawn on the chart mark what is shaping up as a double top pattern. The first peak near 7647 produced the bearish engulfing candle I've been referencing for several weeks. Price pulled back, found buyers, and has now returned to near those highs at current price of 7587.
A double top is confirmed when price fails to break the prior high and begins moving lower through the neckline. The neckline in this case sits near the 7544 to 7400 area between the two peaks. If SPX rolls over from current levels without closing above 7647, the second peak of the double top is complete. The measured move of the pattern would then target a decline equivalent to the height of the pattern below the neckline.
The critical test this week is therefore simple. Can SPX close a daily candle above 7647 with volume and sustain it? If yes the double top is invalidated and the short-term bull case reasserts. If no and price begins fading from 7587 toward 7544 and below, the pattern is confirmed and the next leg lower begins.
Full level map for SPX.
7647 is the resistance ceiling and the level that negates the double top if broken cleanly.
7544 is the neckline support of the current pattern. A daily close below 7544 from the current level would be the first signal of the pattern playing out.
7043 is the first major support below 7544. This has been my reference level throughout this bear phase. A move from current price to 7043 would represent approximately a 7% decline and would be the first genuinely structural test.
6525 and 6354 are the deeper supports. Previous major levels from the correction earlier this year.
The green support zone at the bottom of the chart between roughly 6000 and 6200 is the macro accumulation zone for SPX. This is where institutional buying has historically been concentrated and where I would expect the most significant buying response on any deeper correction.
The setup: I'm watching this week's close carefully. A close above 7647 changes the short-term assessment. Two consecutive daily rejections from 7587 without a break above the high confirms the double top and targets the 7544 neckline as the first stop.
Gold - 4145. Failed Breakdown. DCA Zone Context. The Picture Has Changed.
Gold at 4145 is the most interesting development in the macro space this week.
The descending trendline from the 5611 high has been the dominant structure throughout the correction. That trendline has been capping every recovery attempt since the parabolic peak. What's different now is what happened at the 4105 level.
Price broke below 4105. I flagged that as the critical support. The break briefly sent gold toward the 3883 zone. And then buyers came in. Price recovered back above 4105 and is now at 4145, sitting above what was the broken support.
This is a failed breakdown. And failed breakdowns are among the most powerful reversal signals in technical analysis. When a widely watched support level breaks, the obvious trade is to sell. When that break fails and price recovers above the level, all the sellers who entered on the breakdown are now trapped short and their stop orders above 4105 become buying pressure as they cover.
The DCA zone I have marked on the chart sits between 3883 at the top and 3503 at the bottom. Price briefly dipped into the upper boundary of that zone before recovering. That dip into the DCA zone and recovery is the kind of pattern that historically marks the beginning of a basing process rather than a continuation lower.
Full level structure for gold.
4105 is now the critical support that needs to hold. The failed breakdown makes this level more important, not less. A daily close back below 4105 after the recovery would negate the failed breakdown signal and send gold back toward 3883.
3883 is the upper boundary of the DCA zone below 4105. If gold returns to this level with the failed breakdown pattern still in question, it represents the starter accumulation zone.
3503 is the lower boundary of the DCA zone. The macro floor reference for this correction cycle.
Above current price, 5410 and 5611 are the resistance references. These represent the prior distribution highs and are not relevant in the near term but they define the ultimate recovery targets if the base at current levels develops into a genuine reversal.
The descending trendline from the 5611 high is still the ceiling for the macro picture. Price is below that trendline. Until gold closes a weekly candle above that trendline, the macro structure remains bearish. But the failed breakdown at 4105 is the first meaningful sign that the selling pressure may be exhausting.
Silver - 61. Near-Capitulation Low. Recovery in Progress.
Silver at 61 has bounced from near the 54 critical support I've been flagging for weeks. The lows of the recent decline came within reach of that level before buyers stepped in. The recovery from those lows to current price of 61 is approximately 12%.
The chart context matters here. The descending structure from the 121 spike high has been intact throughout the correction. The trendline from the high has been capping every bounce. For the first time, the recovery from the near-54 lows is starting to show momentum that could test that descending trendline from below.
Full level structure for silver.
54 remains the critical floor. The bounce from near this level is constructive but a return to 54 and a failure to hold it on a weekly close would change the picture significantly. The level needs to hold.
69 is the first meaningful resistance above current price. This was the support that broke on the way down and now acts as the ceiling for any recovery attempt. Between 61 and 69 is approximately 13% of potential upside on this bounce. Getting to and closing above 69 on a weekly basis would be the first genuine structural positive signal on silver in months.
84 is the next resistance cluster above 69. Then 92 and 96 above that.
39 and 29 are the deeper support references below 54. If 54 breaks on a weekly close these levels come into the downside map.
The most important observation on silver this week: the market went to the level I had defined as critical, found buyers, and bounced meaningfully. That's the market behaving the way the chart predicted. Whether this becomes a genuine reversal or just a bounce before another test of 54 will be determined by whether price can sustain above 69 on any further recovery.
Oil - 68. Below 80. Still the Weakest Chart.
Oil at 68 continues to be the most structurally bearish of the four charts. While gold and silver are showing signs of stabilisation, oil has not yet printed the same recovery signal.
The decline from the 119 high to 68 represents a roughly 43% correction. The 80 level which had been the mid-cycle floor broke decisively and has not been reclaimed. Current price is holding in the high 60s with no clear base building pattern visible on the daily chart.
The 80 level is now the ceiling on any recovery attempt. Between current price and 80 is approximately 16% of potential upside. A daily close above 80 with volume would be the first signal that the decline is showing genuine stabilisation.
Below current price the chart has limited historical structure until the mid-60s and then below 60. These represent the pre-spike trading range from 2024 and early 2025 before the parabolic move began.
The macro implications of oil at 68 and still declining: if oil cannot find a floor in the 65 to 68 range this week, the growth demand signal embedded in the commodity price continues to be negative. That matters for the Fed's assessment of the economy and for risk asset valuations broadly.
The one scenario that would change the oil picture: a weekly close above 80. Until that happens I treat oil as structurally weak and the least constructive of the four charts.
The complete macro picture this week
Gold showing a failed breakdown above 4105 with the DCA zone briefly touched. Silver recovering from near-critical support at 54. SPX testing the double top at the highs with the critical test being whether 7647 breaks cleanly. Oil still below 80 with no base pattern forming.
The shift from last week to this week is in gold and silver. Two weeks ago all four charts were in declining structures simultaneously. This week gold and silver are showing early recovery signals. That's not nothing.
It doesn't change the overall cash positioning significantly. The crypto DCA zones are the primary framework. But the macro picture is becoming more nuanced as commodities begin to potentially stabilise.
The week ahead will be defined by SPX at the highs and whether oil can hold 65 to 68 as a floor. Both answers will inform the broader risk picture.
Full live updates as levels develop are inside the community. www.whop.com/digitalvault1
Victor
