Four indicators. One consistent message.

The stablecoin rotation that began weeks ago is still flowing into BTC. Not into alts. Not broadly. Into Bitcoin specifically.

I've been calling this Phase 1 for three weeks now. This week's charts confirm we are still in it.

Before I walk through each indicator, let me explain the four phases I track. Because understanding where we are in the cycle changes everything about how you position.

Phase 1 - BTC Concentration: Stablecoin dominance falls from peaks. Capital rotates into BTC first. BTC.D rises. ETH and alts bleed in BTC terms. This is the "safety within crypto" phase. Institutions and experienced traders buy BTC, not alts.

Phase 2 - BTC Makes Its Move: BTC runs to a meaningful new level. BTC.D peaks and begins rolling over. ETH starts to stabilise in BTC terms. Stablecoin dominance breaks below 9%. TOTAL3 starts breaking resistance.

Phase 3 - Altseason Conditions Forming: BTC.D falls below 57.18%. ETH/BTC reclaims key levels. TOTAL3 above 900B. Capital begins rotating from BTC into ETH, then alts. This is the early altseason setup.

Phase 4 - Full Altseason: BTC.D below 54%. Stablecoin dominance below 6%. TOTAL3 above 1T. Capital flowing aggressively from BTC and stables into the alt ecosystem. The biggest alt moves happen here.

We are in Phase 1. Firmly. All four charts confirm it. Probably all the way till 2027.

And importantly, I don't believe Phase 2 can fully develop until a real macro bottom forms. SPX is historically overvalued. BTC hasn't formed the higher low above 97k needed to invalidate the macro downtrend. Until those structural pieces are in place, the rotation is happening inside an unresolved macro picture.

Here's where each indicator stands.

BTC.D is still above the 60.37% resistance it broke through last week. It's not extended much further. The 61.18% high from last week has not been exceeded.

This is the first week where BTC.D has not moved decisively higher. That's worth noting. Not a peak signal yet. But the momentum of the dominance rise appears to be slowing.

What does this tell me practically?

Capital is still concentrating in BTC. The alt market is still in an unfriendly environment. The Altcoin Season Index sits at approximately 31 out of 100. Altseason requires a reading above 75. We are less than half that threshold. The last time it was this low was during the depths of the 2024 to 2025 bear period.

The level that would signal Phase 2 beginning: a sustained weekly close below 60.37%, then 59.63%. Until BTC.D breaks back below those levels and holds, Phase 1 is intact.

62.60% above is the next resistance. If BTC.D pushes there and rejects, that rejection would be the first concrete signal that Phase 1 is completing and Phase 2 conditions are starting to form.

Most retail investors will hear about the SpaceX IPO only after it's too late. And by the time the headlines hit, the volatility has already begun.

This exclusive briefing covers the early signals Wall Street is watching right now, the access paths most people don't know exist, and why the window to prepare is narrower than you think.

Inside, you'll discover the verified signals that typically appear before a major IPO filing, what retail investors can legally access before a company goes public, and the positioning strategies serious investors evaluate before the market shifts. Don't wait for the news to break—get the data you need today.

Access the briefing

Combined USDT and USDC dominance is essentially flat from last week's 10.092%. It has been sitting at this level for two weeks now.

10.003% is the support. It's holding.

The stablecoin dominance going flat rather than falling further tells me the rotation from stablecoins into risk assets has temporarily paused. Capital isn't rushing back in. It's sitting at the edge of the decision.

Historically, stablecoin dominance at 10% represents extreme risk aversion. Roughly 1 in 10 crypto dollars is sitting in stablecoins. The rotation that follows when this level breaks lower is what drives the biggest moves in the cycle.

But the rotation happening right now, with dominance at 10% and only mildly falling, is cautious. It's not the aggressive Phase 3 rotation. It's the early, tentative Phase 1 move into BTC.

What I'm watching: Does stablecoin dominance break below 9% on a weekly close? That's the Phase 2 signal on this chart. Until then, the rotation is real but measured.

ETH/BTC continues to fall. From 0.02913 last week to 0.02831 this week.

I flagged an intermediate support level at 0.02834 in previous issues. ETH/BTC is essentially sitting on it right now, 0.00003 above it.

The level below that matters enormously. I'll cover the full framework in premium today. But what I can tell you in the free issue is this: if ETH/BTC loses the current level on a daily closing basis, the next significant support is meaningfully lower and the altcoin picture gets materially worse.

ETH underperforming BTC at this pace and magnitude is exactly what you'd expect to see in Phase 1. The market leader of the alt ecosystem is losing ground to BTC week after week. That's the signature of capital concentrating in Bitcoin specifically.

For alts to recover, ETH/BTC needs to first stabilise, then form a base, then begin making higher lows. None of that has started.

TOTAL3 moved from 744.46B last week to 764.34B this week. A 19.88B improvement. The altcoin market cap is edging toward the 775.21B resistance I've been tracking for weeks.

This is the most constructive chart of the four this week. The alt market is building toward a key test.

775.21B is the resistance. A daily close above it would be the first TOTAL3 signal that conditions for Phase 2 are beginning to develop. We are 10.87B below that level as of today.

But context matters. TOTAL3 pushing toward 775.21B resistance while BTC.D is still elevated and ETH/BTC is still falling tells me this is individual alt selection driving the number higher, not broad-based capital rotation. Some alts are working. Most aren't. That's Phase 1 behaviour.

661.43B is still the floor. As long as TOTAL3 holds above it on daily closes, the range is intact.

I've been in cash since BTC turned bearish. I'm still in cash on spot.

The on-chain indicators I track, MVRV Z-Score, NUPL, realized losses, the STH/LTH crossover, none of them have signalled the real bottom. I covered these in Monday's issue. They haven't changed.

SPX is historically overvalued. BTC hasn't formed the higher low above 97k needed to invalidate the macro downtrend. Until those structural pieces are in place, I'm not deploying into spot.

What I'm doing instead: selling calls into resistance and maintaining short positions where the structure supports it. Generating income while the cycle plays out.

Phase 1 is intact. The rotation is real. But it's a BTC rotation, not an altcoin one. And even the BTC rotation is happening inside a macro picture that hasn't confirmed a real bottom yet.

Patience is still the position.

Free gives you the phase framework. Premium gives you the exact decision triggers at every stage.

Inside premium today:

Join 9-5 Traders Premium at www.whop.com/digitalvault1

Full scenario maps. Exact levels. Real-time Discord updates.

Victor