Four legs, in order. Stablecoin dominance moves first. TOTAL3 moves second. ETHBTC moves third. BTC dominance moves last, the final confirmation. This week is a genuine step back for the sequence overall, and I want to walk through why honestly rather than smoothing it over.
Stablecoin dominance, the trend broke
Sitting around 11.8% right now. That is up from roughly 11.5% two issues back, which itself was the low point of a three week easing trend I had been tracking as real progress toward step one confirming. That trend has now reversed. Resistance sits around 12.1%, then 12.6% at the recent high. Support sits down near 9.8%, the base this built from earlier in the year.
I do not want to overreact to one week, but I also do not want to pretend the three week trend I was building confidence around is still fully intact. It is not. Cash coming off the sidelines was the story two issues ago. This week the story is cash pausing that retreat, at least for now.
TOTAL3, drifted lower
Around 657b currently, down a bit from roughly 674b two issues back. Resistance sits at 661b just overhead, then 775b, then 902b at the top of the range. Support sits around 567b, then 517b, then 470b further down.
Still the weakest leg of the four, and this week it did not just stay flat, it actually drifted a touch lower. No breakout, no higher low, nothing that looks like altcoins broadly absorbing new capital.
ETHBTC, the real story this week
Sitting right around 0.030, up from roughly 0.029 two issues back. Resistance sits at 0.030 essentially exactly where price is trading, then 0.0344 above that. Support sits at 0.0283, the level that confirmed the original breakout, then 0.0264 deeper.
Here is what makes this chart the headline this week. Price is not just testing the 0.030 horizontal level. It is testing that level at the exact same point where a much longer, multi year descending trendline also sits right now. Two separate forms of resistance converging on the same price at the same time is a bigger test than either one would be alone. This is the most important single level across all four charts this week, and it is being tested directly as I write this.
This trendline is not a recent addition to the chart. It stretches back well over a year, connecting the highs from the last major top all the way down to where price is testing it today. A line with that much history behind it, one that has capped every meaningful rally attempt along the way, is a different kind of obstacle than a horizontal level drawn off a few months of recent price action. The fact that the horizontal resistance and this long term trendline happen to be sitting at almost exactly the same price right now is not something I am treating as a coincidence worth ignoring.
BTC dominance, a pause, not a reversal
Around 59.1% currently, down slightly from roughly 59.5% two issues back, which was the peak of a three week climb I flagged as moving the wrong way for the sequence. Resistance sits at 60.4%, then 62.6% further out. Support sits at 58.5%, then 57.2% deeper.
This is a modest pullback, not a confirmed reversal. The three week climb has paused rather than broken down. I am not calling this step four turning yet. I am calling it a small crack in a trend that had been moving in the wrong direction for weeks.
Where this leaves the sequence
Three of four legs moved against the thesis this week, or at best stalled rather than improved. Stablecoin dominance reversed its easing trend. TOTAL3 drifted lower instead of building a base. BTC dominance only paused rather than actually turning down. The one leg that is still extending, ETHBTC, is now facing the toughest test it has faced since the original breakout, a horizontal level and a multi year trendline sitting on top of each other at the exact same price.
I am not walking back the thesis. I am reporting what the data actually shows this week, which is a genuine step back after several weeks of steady, if partial, progress. This is exactly why I track all four every week instead of only checking in when something exciting happens. The confirmed leg getting harder to extend at the same time the other three lose ground is precisely the kind of week that separates people who are actually reading the data from people who are just repeating last week's narrative because it felt good to believe.
Weeks like this are not comfortable to write, and I could easily lead with the ETHBTC test alone and skip past the other three. That would make for a more exciting issue and a less honest one. The whole point of tracking a sequence instead of a single chart is to catch exactly this kind of week, where the exciting story is not the whole story.
In the premium issue I have the full precision numbers on all four charts, a deeper breakdown of the trendline and horizontal resistance confluence on ETHBTC and what I actually need to see to trust a break through it, and how this more cautious week is changing my sizing on BTC, ETH, and the options book this week.
You now have the rounded levels.
You know which leg is weakening.
You know which chart is sitting at the most important test of the week.
But knowing the level is not the same as knowing how to trade it.
Inside the premium issue, I break down the exact ETHBTC confluence, what a real breakout needs to look like, where the sequence fails, and how this weaker setup is changing my positioning across BTC, ETH, and the options book.
Most traders will see ETHBTC touch resistance and immediately scream altseason.
That is how they get trapped.
My members are watching whether the break is real, whether capital is actually rotating, and whether the other three legs confirm it.
Do not confuse movement with confirmation.
Do not size aggressively into a sequence that is still incomplete.
Join 9-5 Traders and get the full playbook before the market forces the lesson on you.
