Why I'm not selling my Bitcoin yet (and what SOPR is telling us now)

Bitcoin just broke above $104,000 again. And if you’re anything like the traders in my circle, you’re probably asking:

These are smart questions. But answering them requires more than gut feel or price charts alone.

In the 9-5 Traders community, we take a very different approach.

We don’t chase the highs. We watch behavior.

The Indicator That Has My Attention Right Now

One of my favorite on-chain metrics is the Short-Term Holder SOPR.

Let’s break that down.

SOPR stands for Spent Output Profit Ratio, and it tells us if Bitcoin holders are selling at a profit or loss. But when we filter it for short-term holders (those who bought in the last 155 days), it becomes incredibly insightful.

Why?

Because short-term holders (STHs) are the first to react to market changes. They're more likely to panic sell during dips or take quick profits during rallies. So when STHs are showing signs of capitulation or euphoria, it tells us a lot about market sentiment.

📊 Where We Are Now (And Why I'm Still Holding)

Fast forward to today. Bitcoin is now over $104K.

Let’s look at the SOPR again:

• It’s above 1, which means short-term holders are back to selling at a profit.

• But it’s only at 1.02–1.05 range — far from the overheated “distribution” zone (which historically sits closer to 1.15+).

This is what I call the “conviction rally.”

Why? Because prices are rising, but investors aren’t rushing for the exits. We’re seeing controlled profit-taking, not euphoric dumping. And that’s important.

In previous cycles, true market tops happened when the STH SOPR spiked toward 1.2 or more — clear signs that everyone was rushing to lock in gains.

We’re not there yet.

This is like watching the fuel gauge on a car during a road trip. We’ve started accelerating, but we still have gas in the tank. The engine is heating up but it’s not overheating.

🧠 What This Means for Traders Like Us

I want to be clear: this isn’t about never selling. It’s about knowing when to sell smart.

If you’re a swing trader trying to build real wealth (not just chase pumps), you need a system. That’s what I teach inside 9-5 Traders:

✅ We use SOPR and capital rotation metrics to identify accumulation zones — when the market is emotionally weak but fundamentally strong.

✅ We sell gradually during red zone spikes — when metrics show speculative excess and profit-taking mania.

✅ We stay grounded when noise takes over — by sticking to data-backed conviction, not hype.

✋ So, Am I Selling Here?

Not yet.

Even though BTC is at $104K, the SOPR tells me this rally is still healthy. It's not built on mania. It’s built on momentum and measured confidence.

And that’s what separates smart money from the crowd.

The crowd sells because “price is high.”
Smart money sells because “behavior is overextended.”

Right now, short-term holders aren’t overextended. So I’m holding. Watching. And preparing for the next rotation.

If you're tired of second-guessing your trades based on emotion or Twitter noise…

And you want to learn how I actually use these metrics to enter and exit positions with confidence...

Then come join me inside 9-5 Traders.

We trade like professionals. Even if we started as 9-5 employees.

Let’s build this run together.

– Victor