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Let me tell you the uncomfortable truth.
Most traders don’t blow up because they picked the wrong level.
They blow up because they sized wrong.
You can survive bad entries.
You cannot survive bad sizing.
And right now, in this choppy compression phase, size is everything.
The Illusion of “Good Support”
Let’s say you buy 60k.
Technically reasonable.
Prior demand.
Psychological round number.
Visible reaction zone.
But here’s what nobody calculates:
If BTC sweeps to 52k first.
That’s a 13–15% drawdown.
If it sweeps to 48k.
Now you’re down 20%.
If it goes to 40k.
Now it’s -33%.
The level wasn’t the problem.
The size was.
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The Real Edge In Chop
In expansion markets, aggression pays.
In chop markets, restraint pays.
Your job is not to maximize gains.
Your job is to avoid compounding mistakes.
Right now I’m watching:
• BTC dominance compression
• ETH/BTC weakness
• Stablecoin dominance stability
• Open interest creeping up on small rallies
This is not expansion behavior.
This is coiling behavior.
Coiling phases are violent in both directions.
Which means your exposure must reflect uncertainty.
A Simple Capital Model (Use This)
In chop:
Core exposure: 20–30% max.
Tactical trades: 5–10% slices.
Cash reserve: 50%+.
If breakout confirms:
Increase gradually.
If breakdown confirms:
Decrease quickly.
Notice the asymmetry.
You increase slowly.
You decrease fast.
That alone will keep you alive longer than most.
The 30k Scenario Nobody Wants To Plan For
You don’t need to believe we’ll hit 30k.
But you must respect that it’s possible.
Ask yourself:
If BTC goes to 30k over 6 months, what is my plan?
Not emotionally.
Mechanically.
At what levels do you:
• Add aggressively
• Stay neutral
• Step aside
• Deploy 50%+ capital
If you cannot answer that calmly, you are trading hope.
What Paid Members Get Starting March 2
From March 2 onward:
Free readers get context.
Paid readers get structure.
Inside paid:
• Exact capital allocation frameworks
• Liquidity pocket mapping
• Breakdown invalidation models
• Breakout execution rules
• Chop Survival Playbook chapters
You won’t just know what’s happening.
You’ll know what to do.
That’s the difference.
Why This Matters Right Now
March historically is volatile.
Tax flows.
Quarter rebalancing.
Macro narrative shifts.
Liquidity rotations.
If we break the range, it will be violent.
If we stay inside, it will be mentally exhausting.
Either way, unstructured traders bleed.
Important Reminder
Signing up before March 6 gives you 2 weeks trial.
After March 6, trial closes.
Paid Discord includes paid newsletter.
So if you want both strategy and execution room, that tier covers everything.
March 2 the paywall goes live.
No more 70% execution for free.
Let me be clear.
You don’t need to upgrade.
But if you stay free, understand what you’re choosing.
You’re choosing commentary over execution.
You’re choosing awareness over structure.
And in chop markets, structure is the only thing that protects capital.
Final email tonight.
We’ll talk about what happens if we reclaim 80k and why most of you will still get it wrong.
Victor
